Monday, August 31, 2020

Week Ending 8-29-20: Expecting a pullback soon

S&P and Nasdaq made new all time highs.  Several upper target prices have been hit so expecting a pullback soon.  Nasdaq and Russell still have some shorter term vW's to about 7-10% higher.


The S&P has hit vW's and made new all time highs.  
It has some short term patterns both ways, 
but has a long way to go to the next long term vW price target 3858.50
Expecting a decent pullback soon.



The Russell hasn't made ATH yet 
and still has longer term vW patterns in range.



The Nasdaq still has a vW triggered to 12734.25,
which is about 7% higher from here.



Dow still has vW to 30105 triggered.



Bonds still have large patterns both ways,
but recently have untriggered the vW's while triggering the vM's



Gold has hit some upper target prices,
But still has some huge ones to the upside.
Has formed a shorter term vM to 1711.1



Silver forming good size patterns both ways



Copper forming sizable patterns in both directions.



Oil has been trading sideways to slightly higher.
vW's to 46.27 and 43.84 are triggered.



Dollar looks like it wants 91.305



Lumber jumped above its last "short-term" pattern
in this enormous run.  
Only pattern left with price data from 1972, 
is an ugly vW to 940.5
"Expecting" it to hit 940.5 for some resistance there, but who knows.  
Also, if doesnt pull back much, it could set up a bullflag to the $1400-$1500 area.



XLF looks decent with some shorter term vW's triggered.




Sunday, August 16, 2020

Week Ending 8/14/20 - Lumber skyrocketing, Wells Fargo looking weak.

The indices got off to a rough start but closed the week up or flat.  
Gold and bonds were down as the Dollar continued to move sideways.
Wells Fargo is looking weak compared to the XLF so watch those.



The S&P has formed short term vW to 3437.25
and longer term to new highs 4340.25 and 3450.5.
All time highs are 3397.5



The Russell has a short term vM to 1533.2
inside larger vW's to 1609.6, 1629, and 1679



The Nasdaq has shorter term vW's to 1147 to 11739 areas,
Inside larger vw's to 1187.75 and 12732.25




Bonds fell for the week triggering vM's to 215'29 and 211'08
Still has larger, longer term, patterns in both directions.



Gold has formed vM's to 1854.2 and 1711.1
however vW's to 2127.5 and 2416.1 are still triggered,
and will remain so unless gold goes below 1711.1



Copper forming sizable patterns in both directions.



Oil has been trading sideways to slightly higher.
vW's to 46.27 and 43.84 are triggered.



The Dollar hit vM 92.835 and has found a bit of support.
If falls below that, expecting the bear flag at 91.305 
and if that doesn't hold, expect vM to 87.125 which will null vW's higher.



Lumber is up more than 185% off its April lows, 
nulling vM's lower and triggering vW to 878.3



Wells Fargo has a vW to 19.72 triggered, 
and is close to triggering vM to 12.59
It is also close to nulling vW's higher.
It caused weakness in XLF last time so watch it v.s. XLF



XLF is forming vW's that will null shorter term vM's lower.

Sunday, August 9, 2020

Week Ending 8/7/20

Stock Indices rose for the week hitting vW target prices.  Volatility wouldn't surprise me here, but we could also butter through to new highs.  Gold has been in an uptrend and the Dollar has been under pressure.



The S&P has a short term vW to 3366.75 
and longer term to new highs 4340.25 and 3450.5.
Might see some volatility here, but wouldn't surprise 
me if we buttered through to new highs either.



The Russell has hit a longer term vW, nulling vMs lower.
As with the S&P we could see volatility here, 
but ultimately expecting higher.  



The Nasdaq hit a longer term vW as well.
It has formed a small vM to 10820.25



Bonds have been strong lately.
Another decent rally and they will null large vM's lower.
Small vM to 222'29 has formed.




Gold is up over 15% the past few weeks,
triggering vW's to 2127.5 and 2416.1



Oil has been trading sideways to slightly higher.
vW's to 46.27 and 43.84 are triggered.



The Dollar hit vM 92.835 and has found a bit of support.
If falls below that, expecting the bear flag at 91.305 
and if that doesn't hold, expect vM to 87.125 which will null vW's higher.



Copper forming sizable patterns in both directions.



XLF is forming vW's that will null shorter term vM's lower.