Sunday, June 28, 2020

Week ending 6-26-20: Markets worry over increased Covid cases.

Stocks had some bad days Wed and Friday on reports of increasing Covid cases.  Indices are close to triggering vM's lower, however still have longer patterns to new highs triggered..  Bonds and Gold were up for the week while the Dollar looks like it could setup a bear flag if it drops too quickly.  


The S&P has formed and attempting to trigger vM's to 2780 and 2610.75



Russell close to triggering vM's 1304.1 and 1186.4



The Nasdaq has formed and triggered vM to 9519.5
If doesn't fall thru that, short and long term
vW's to new highs are still triggered.



Bonds have formed sizable patterns in both directions.



Gold hit vW at 1777.7 and nulled vM's lower.
vW's to 1857 and 1937.6 are triggered.



Oil Broke above $40 before pulling back with the market.
vW's to 43.84 and 46.27 have formed.



The Dollar has formed patterns, some of which are triggered, significantly lower.
Also if breaks lows around 95.70 soon, it could be a possible bear flag to 91.305



XLF has vM's to 20.90 and 19.47 that are triggered.  
Really needs to hold 17.49, otherwise I think stocks are in trouble.



Lumber held up for the week.

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Sunday, June 21, 2020

Week Ending 6/19/20 - Lumber up 20%

Stock indices closed up for the week, but well off the highs.  Bonds and the dollar both have sizable patterns in both directions.  Lumber jumped almost 20% for the week.


The S&P has formed vM's to 2780 and 2610.75
but are not triggered unless we go below 3000.
vW's to new highs are still triggered.



Russell similar to S&P



The Nasdaq fell after hitting vW 10021.75
vM to 9087.25 has formed.
vW's much higher are still triggered.



Bonds have formed sizable patterns in both directions.



Shorter term Bonds have grinded higher with the 5 yr almost making new recent highs.

2 Year

5 Year



Gold is still trading sideways.
Probably gonna make a big move in one direction or another in the near future.



Oil didn't close above recent highs so vM's to 33.13 
and 28.93 are technically still triggered.
vW's to 43.84 and 46.27 have formed.



Dollar has been sitting in large patterns in both directions.



Banks look o.k. here, but that could change in a day, 
and will likely do so in concert with the indices.
Has vM to 20.90 that is triggered, which would make things look pretty ugly.
Click for Update



Lumber jumped 20% for the week.
No vW's to new highs yet, but has vW's formed, 
that if work out it will form vW's to new highs.



Bitcoin

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Sunday, June 14, 2020

Week Ending 6-12-20 - Rough end to the week.

Stocks took a beating Thursday after Wednesdays Fed announcement where they state rates would remain unchanged into next year.  Stocks had a decent day Friday considering Thursdays action.  If we don't have another day like Thursday in the next week or two, I'm currently expecting new highs in the indices.


The S&P has formed a vM to 2780.
vW to new highs are still triggered.



Russell has formed vM's ;lower as well to 1304.1 and 1186.4
Still has vW's to new highs triggered.
Click for Update



The Nasdaq fell after hitting vW 10021.75
vM to 9087.25 has formed.
vW's much higher are still triggered.
Click for Update



Bonds rose for the week, un-triggering vM's lower.
Has small and larger time frame patterns going both ways.



Gold is still trading sideways.
Probably gonna make a big move in one direction or another in the near future.



Oil has formed vM's to 33.13 and 28.93
Expect oil follow the stock markets lead.



The Dollar bounced against the stock indices fall Thursday and Friday.



Banks look o.k. here, but that could change in a day, 
and will likely do so in concert with the indices.


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Sunday, June 7, 2020

Week ending 6/5/20 - Nasdaq makes new all time highs. Riots continue and apparently Covid-19 is no longer an issue???

Stocks rallied for the week with the Nasdaq making new all time highs.  A 5-10% correction wouldn't surprise me from this area, but I think we'll see all time highs in the other indices before a substantial correction.  Bonds, the Dollar, and gold look like they want lower.  Banks look like they are recovering from their recent weakness from the stock indices.  



The S&P rallied for the week.
vW's to 3450.5 and 3852.5 are triggered.



The Russell had a good week as well.  
vW's to 1563.7 ,1629, and 1933.8 are triggered. 



The Nasdaq closed above all time highs on Friday.
vW's to 9912.75, 11198.5, and 1187.75 are triggered.



Dow has vW's to 30105, 32140, and 32724



Bonds fell but bounced at a vW level at 205'04
Small bounce wouldn't surprise me, but has sevral sub-$200 vM's triggered.



Gold still trading sideways.



Oil looks like it wants back above $40, 
and has a vW to 80.82 that is triggered.



The Dollar broke its sideways trading to the downside.
vM's to 93.835 and 92.865 are triggered.



The xlf closed up over 10% this week.
vW's to 28.67 and new highs are triggered.



Wells Fargo participated in the rally,
but hasn't nulled its vM.



Copper





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