Sunday, November 25, 2018

Thanksgiving Week 11-23-18

Stock indices fell again for the week constructing larger patterns lower, while bonds rallied back above the 149'24 level.  the Dollar continues to look strong while oil is getting hammered.


The S&P has not been able to hold the vM 2489.5 neckline lower,
and has now formed and triggered a vM to 2273.  
Currently expecting 2489.5, it will need to rebound from there to avoid further selling towards 2273.
Another possibility could be a W with a base near the 2070-ish area.



The Russell has triggered another vM to 1218.2
and is sitting just above the neckline (currently 1468).
Next low is 1415.10 mad back in February. 



The Nasdaq has formed and triggered a new vM lower as well.
VM's to 6202.75 and 5478.5 are triggered.



The Dow has vM's triggered to 23292 and 21698



The XLF will need stocks to rally to pull it higher.  
Has patterns forming higher, but still looks ugly.



Oil continues to get hammered and busting through target prices.  
$40 wouldn't surprise me at all.
Click For Update



The dollar has a vM to 94.410 formed, but ultimately looks like it wants higher.



From 10/28/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buyin opportunity for vW to 1708.3
Click For Update



Bonds have rallied back above 149'24,
and have formed and triggered vW to 155'28
Click For Update



















Sunday, November 4, 2018

Week Ending 11/2/18 - Bonds back below 149

Stocks indices bounced this week, retesting, and/or retaking their vM necklines lower.
Bonds have fallen back below the vM target price at 149'24 which I believe is a key level for the broader market.
The dollar looks like it could trade sideways/lower, but ultimately looks like it wants higher, which will likely put pressure on stocks and oil.

Note: All dates on charts that say 10/28/18, were intended to say 10/26/18


The S&P so far has bounced from last weeks selling,
and is re-testing the vM neckline to 2489.5
Price needs to re-take the neckline, currently >2745 (A)
Otherwise expecting further selling towards 2489.5 (B), 
which will null vW to 3106


The Russell is also re-testing its neckline.
However, it has closed above it.  


The Nasdaq is re-testing its neckline as well, and making better progress.


The Dow is retesting its neckline as well.



The XLF will need stocks to rally to pull it higher.  
Has patterns forming higher, but still looks ugly.



Oil hit vM to 64.45, and has closed considerably lower.
Expecting 60.43 and if that doesn't hold, 
expecting M to 53.59 area


The $ nulled shorter term vM to 91.710 
and is re-testing vW neckline to 97.670



From 10/26/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buying opportunity for vW to 1708.3



Bonds made an early attempt in the week to rally,
but ultimately closed below the recent 
larger time frame target price at 149.24 
I think this is a key level for the broader markets right now.
Has formed and triggered small vM lower towards 147'03