Stock indices fell sharply in the last few weeks, coinciding with bonds hitting a target price and bouncing. A further drop (7-10%) in equities and oil wont surprise me at all, unless bonds and the Dollar turn lower.
The S&P fell the last few weeks giving up the last four(correction) months of gains. A vM to 2489.5 has formed and been triggered. A break below the 2530 area will null vW higher towards 3106.
The Russell has formed and triggered vM to 1330.20.
14415.10 is the low made back in February.
The Nasdaq has formed and triggered a large vM to 6202.75,
which was previously a vW target,
and then held as support a few months later.
The Dow has formed and triggered a vM to 23292,
which is just above the null point of 23088 for vW's higher.
The XLF has nulled all vW's higher.
Expecting vM to 23.06
Oil hit target price of 73.78 and has been trading somewhat sideways.
vM to 64.45 and 60.43 are triggered,
but ultimately expecting a move towards 89.56
The Dollar is sitting in two large opposing patterns.
The vM to 87.445 came close,
but has formed and triggered a well constructed vW to 101.215 .
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2.
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buyin opportunity for vW to 1708.3
Bonds hit a vM target price at 149.24 and is trying to bounce,
which I beleive is the reason for the downturn in stocks.
In order for equities to rally, we need bonds and the dollar to turn lower.
vM's to 118 and 113 are triggered, but we could easily see price move into the 160-170 areas first.
