Sunday, December 23, 2018

Week ending 12-21-18

Stocks have been getting hammered, falling below shorter term vM target prices.  Expecting lower.  Oil has been getting hammered as well, while bonds have been rallying.  could see some pullback/seesaw action, but I think ultimately the current trends will continue.


The ES hit target price 2489.5 but couldn't bounce from there.
Expecting VM to 2273



The Russel couldn't bounce from 1330.2
Expecting 1218.2



The Nasdaq couldn;t bounce from 6202.75
Expecting 5478.5



The Dow couldn't bounce from 23292.
Expecting 21698



XLF has fallen through vM's to 24.39 and 23.06 
and is sitting just above vM to 22.65.
If doesn't bounce from there, expecting vM 20.28



Oil has formed a bear flag to 24.39 
inside a larger time-frame vM to 19.91



The dollar has triggered a vM to 94.410
but ultimately looks like it wants higher.



From 10/28/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buying opportunity for vW to 1708.3




Bonds have continued their rally higher.  
A very likely scenario here is for a pullback to GAP 156'06
before resuming rally towards vW's 164 and 174
Click for Update












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Sunday, December 9, 2018

Week Ending 12/7/18



Stock indicies have been been seesawing in recent weeks.  The Russell and Nasdaq are performing worse than the Dow and S&P, which is concerning for markets.  Oil needs to bounce or looks like could head much lower.  Bonds have hit an upward target price.  Watch id the pull back or continue the uptrend, which will put pressure on stocks.



 Bulls and Bears continue to battle for vM necklines.
As of the open Sunday night, the bears are winning.
If price can't retake the necklines, expecting 2489.5 and 2273.0



The Russell is back below the necklines for 1330.2 and 1218.2



The Nasdaq is significantly below necklines for 6202.75 and 5478.5



The Dow is similar to the S&P




The XLF has nulled vW to 29.41 and broke well below the neckline for 24.39



Oil needs to bounce from here to avoid triggering a huge vM to under $20



The dollar has a vM to 94.410 formed, 
but ultimately looks like it wants higher.



From 10/28/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buying opportunity for vW to 1708.3



Bonds hit price target 155'28.  They could pull back here, 
but ultimately they look like they want the 159 area.











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Sunday, December 2, 2018

Week ending 11/30/18

Stocks indices bounced for the week


The S&P has bounced forming a W.  
The "2070-ish " from last week was a typo or mistake. 
Not sure what it was supposed to be, but regardless,
a W to 2998 has formed and is attempting to retake vM necklines lower.
If the W to 2998 works, it will null vM's lower.



The Russell is forming a W towards the 1701 area.







The Dow has retaken necklines for vW's lower and has formed a double bottom to new highs.
Click for Update



The XLF has formed a vW to 29.41



Oil continues to get hammered and busting through target prices.  
$40 wouldn't surprise me at all.



The dollar has a vM to 94.410 formed, but ultimately looks like it wants higher.



From 10/28/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buyin opportunity for vW to 1708.3
Click for Update



Despite Stock indicies rallying, bonds had a good week as well.  
A bit suspicious of the stock rally since bonds didn't fall in conjunction .










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Sunday, November 25, 2018

Thanksgiving Week 11-23-18

Stock indices fell again for the week constructing larger patterns lower, while bonds rallied back above the 149'24 level.  the Dollar continues to look strong while oil is getting hammered.


The S&P has not been able to hold the vM 2489.5 neckline lower,
and has now formed and triggered a vM to 2273.  
Currently expecting 2489.5, it will need to rebound from there to avoid further selling towards 2273.
Another possibility could be a W with a base near the 2070-ish area.



The Russell has triggered another vM to 1218.2
and is sitting just above the neckline (currently 1468).
Next low is 1415.10 mad back in February. 



The Nasdaq has formed and triggered a new vM lower as well.
VM's to 6202.75 and 5478.5 are triggered.



The Dow has vM's triggered to 23292 and 21698



The XLF will need stocks to rally to pull it higher.  
Has patterns forming higher, but still looks ugly.



Oil continues to get hammered and busting through target prices.  
$40 wouldn't surprise me at all.
Click For Update



The dollar has a vM to 94.410 formed, but ultimately looks like it wants higher.



From 10/28/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buyin opportunity for vW to 1708.3
Click For Update



Bonds have rallied back above 149'24,
and have formed and triggered vW to 155'28
Click For Update



















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Sunday, November 4, 2018

Week Ending 11/2/18 - Bonds back below 149

Stocks indices bounced this week, retesting, and/or retaking their vM necklines lower.
Bonds have fallen back below the vM target price at 149'24 which I believe is a key level for the broader market.
The dollar looks like it could trade sideways/lower, but ultimately looks like it wants higher, which will likely put pressure on stocks and oil.

Note: All dates on charts that say 10/28/18, were intended to say 10/26/18


The S&P so far has bounced from last weeks selling,
and is re-testing the vM neckline to 2489.5
Price needs to re-take the neckline, currently >2745 (A)
Otherwise expecting further selling towards 2489.5 (B), 
which will null vW to 3106


The Russell is also re-testing its neckline.
However, it has closed above it.  


The Nasdaq is re-testing its neckline as well, and making better progress.


The Dow is retesting its neckline as well.



The XLF will need stocks to rally to pull it higher.  
Has patterns forming higher, but still looks ugly.



Oil hit vM to 64.45, and has closed considerably lower.
Expecting 60.43 and if that doesn't hold, 
expecting M to 53.59 area


The $ nulled shorter term vM to 91.710 
and is re-testing vW neckline to 97.670



From 10/26/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buying opportunity for vW to 1708.3



Bonds made an early attempt in the week to rally,
but ultimately closed below the recent 
larger time frame target price at 149.24 
I think this is a key level for the broader markets right now.
Has formed and triggered small vM lower towards 147'03






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Sunday, October 28, 2018

Week Ending 10/26/18

Stock indices fell sharply in the last few weeks, coinciding with bonds hitting a target price and bouncing.  A further drop (7-10%) in equities and oil wont surprise me at all, unless bonds and the Dollar turn lower.  


The S&P fell the last few weeks giving up the last four(correction) months of gains.  A vM to 2489.5 has formed and been triggered.  A break below the 2530 area will null vW higher towards 3106.



The Russell has formed and triggered vM to 1330.20.  
14415.10 is the low made back in February.



The Nasdaq has formed and triggered a large vM to 6202.75, 
which was previously a vW target, 
and then held as support a few months later.
Click For Update




The Dow has formed and triggered a vM to 23292,
which is just above the null point of 23088 for vW's higher.



The XLF has nulled all vW's higher.
Expecting vM to 23.06



Oil hit target price of 73.78 and has been trading somewhat sideways.  
vM to 64.45 and 60.43 are triggered,
but ultimately expecting a move towards 89.56



The Dollar is sitting in two large opposing patterns.
The vM to 87.445 came close, 
but has formed and triggered a well constructed vW to 101.215 .



Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buyin opportunity for vW to 1708.3
Click For Update



Bonds hit a vM target price at 149.24 and is trying to bounce,
which I beleive is the reason for the downturn in stocks. 
In order for equities to rally, we need bonds and the dollar to turn lower.
vM's to 118 and 113 are triggered, but we could easily see price move into the 160-170 areas first.









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