Sunday, May 12, 2019

Week ending 5/10/19

The S&P has a vM to 2018.75 inside much larger vW's to 3218 and 3579.25.  Looks like it wants higher as long as it can stay above 2880.



Russel has a small vM to 1520.6 inside larger vW's to 1678.7, 1828.2, and 1927.1
Unlike the other indexes, it still has a way to go before making new highs, and nulling larger time frame vM's lower.



The Nasdaq has a vM to 6879.5 inside larger vW's to 8038 and 8571.5



The Dow Hasn't yet made new highs.  Has a VM to 24218 inside larger time frame vW's to 27089, 28181, 29814, 30844, and 32173



The XLF Still has a vM to 20.28 that is triggered.  Above 30.32 Nulls.
vW's to new all time highs are triggered.



XLF Long Term



The Dollar has been going somewhat sideways, but still grinding higher.



Gold still trading sideways.



Copper



Bonds have held strong despite the equity market rally.
They hit vW to 167 this week.  
Watch to see if turns lower or forms patterns higher.  
Higher would likely be bad for equity markets
Click for Update



Oil has a vM to 58.07 inside a larger time frame vW to 71.93



Lumber futures are retesting last years lows.
Needs to bounce here to avoid further selling towards 268.5,
and triggering patterns to sub $200



Soybeans has a vM to 560'6 that is triggered.
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Sunday, March 17, 2019

Week ending 3/15/19

Stock indices rallied for the week with the S&P retaking the high made just below all time highs.  Other indices arre close.  Bonds still have patterns both ways though.



The ES has rallied and closed above the
high made just before last years drop, 
which is also the high just below new all time highs. 
Could see some sideways action,
but if the Russell can follow suit, expecting new all time highs.
Click for Update






The Nasdaq has nulled short term vM's lower, 
and sitting just below the high made just below all time highs.



The Dollar missed vW 97.670 by .050 
Calling that a hit.  vW to 92.010 was also nulled.



Oil looks like it want 63.19



Bonds have been trading sideways and have several target prices both ways.  
Price is close to hitting vW 162'08.  If it hits and turns lower,
it should be good for stocks.

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Sunday, March 10, 2019

Week Ending 3-8-19

The markets are back below my bull/bear lines 2770 for the S&P and 1540 for the Russell.  On Thursday the Russell fell significantly heavier (2% v.s. .65%-.93%) than the other indices, which is usually a leader of the trend.  If stock indices do go to lower vM target prices, they will form patterns to test last years lows.



The ES barely missed vW 2820.25 and turned lower.  
vM to 2721.75 is triggered and vM to 2641 is formed.
2770 is my bull/bear line.



The Russell hit vM 1538 and fell below.  
vM to 1469.7 is triggered.
Click for Update



The Nasdaq has hit vM 7005 and has so far bounced.
vM to 6794.25 has formed.



The Dow needs to retake 26200 to null vM's lower.



XLF looks 50/50 either way.
Click for Update



The Dollar is fighting between two patterns. 
VW to 99.890 and vM to 92.010
Shorter term vW 97.670 is close to hitting.



Gold still trading sideways



Copper triggered vW to 3.7840



Oil has small vM to 53.13 triggered.
If that on works it will likely form a vM sub $50.



Bonds have vW to 162'08 and 164'25 which is close to triggering
which will likely be bad for stocks.



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Sunday, March 3, 2019

Week Ending 3/1/19

Stocks continue to grind higher.  Oil looks like it wants the $63 area.  Bonds took a hit the last several days.
Note: Not a lot has changed on some charts so refer to previous blog for them if omitted.



ES has vW to 2820.25 triggered.



The russel hit vM to 1572 and has formed a vM to 1538.3
Above 1603.6 nulls.



The Nasdaq hit it's vW targte price 7133.25
Expecting resistance at vW 7133.25



Copper triggered vW to 3.7840



Bonds fell the last several days and are sitting just above a gap at 156.06.
Also vM's to 156'01 and 154'15 are triggered.
Could see a bounce from the gap, but price is well below the neckline for vM's.  
If doesn't bounce from these price targets, expecting new highs in the stock indexes.



Lumber futures were unable to bounce from vM 391.9
vM to 353.4 is triggered. 


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Sunday, February 17, 2019

Week Ending 2/15/19

The indices have hit vW target prices(except the Nasdaq which is close) that look like resistance areas.  If can push through here, expecting new highs.  


The ES hit vW to to 2770.75
and expecting this area, to 2819 to be resistance.
If can push through that, expecting new highs, 
and vW to 3218 will be remain triggered.
Needs new highs to null vM's lower.

ES Shorter Term


ES Longer Term



The Russel hit vM to 1572
vW's to new highs are triggered if can get over last Oct highs.
Watch the Russells action.  Its moves usually precede other index moves.



The Nasdaq is just below it's vW targte price 7133.25
Expecting resistance at vW 7133.25



The Dow outperformed otherr indexes Friday
and closed above vW target price 25811.
Vw's to new highs arre triggered here as well.



XLF has pushed above vW 26.06,
but on relatively light volume.
-From 2/8/19-
The XLF hit vW to 26.06
vM's to 25.10 and 24.77 have formed.
vW's to 27.31 and 28.98 are triggered.
Watch for resistance at 27.31




Short term vM's lower were nulled on Friday.
vW to 63.19 is triggered.



Gold has triggered vW to 1421.5 which will trigger vW to 1708.3
Click for Update



Short term vM's lower were nulled on Friday.
vW to 63.19 is triggered.




Bonds are trading between several necklines higher and lower.





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Sunday, February 10, 2019

Week ending 2/8/19


Not a lot has changed in stock indices, chart-wise, and a few others in recent weeks, so refer to past charts.
Stocks have been rallying but are experiencing a pull back after Democrats announced a probe into Deutsche Bank.  Bonds have also hit a small vM target price and bounced, putting pressure on the markets.  Oil is forming patterns lower and lumber has hit a vW target price.  We are just below vW target prices in the indices, which I think will be resistance.  If we can push through them, well likely see new highs.



The S&P has formed a small vM to 2650.
Still expecting price to hit 2770.25, 
and expecting that area to the 2820 area to be resistance.
If can get through that, expecting new highs.
Click for Update



The XLF hit vW to 26.06
vM's to 25.10 and 24.77 have formed.
vW's to 27.31 and 28.98 are triggered.
Watch for resistance at 27.31



Oil is starting to form vM's lower
to 51.74, 50.69, and 47.90
vW to 63.19 will remain intact 
unless price dips below 42.36



Bonds have bounced from 158'10
and forming small vW's higher.
Also, price is about to trigger vW towards 174'05
This would likely be bad for the stock markets.



Lumber has hit vW 438.8 and filled the gap just above.
Formed a small vM to 391.9 inside a larger vW to 589.6
Needs to hold above the 420 area to avoid triggering vM to 196.1



Deutsche Bank has huge patterns lower.  
Looks like "Too Big to Fail"






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