Sunday, March 29, 2020

Week Ending 3-27-20

The Indices had a decent week overall but fell heavily late Friday, likely due to traders not wanting to be long over the weekend.  Oil is back near the lows, which could drag the market with it if it declines further.  Bonds look like they want to rally again, and gold and the Dollar continues their large swings. 



The S&P had an overall good week but fell late Friday, 
most likely due to traders not wanting to be long over the weekend.
vW to 2515.75 is triggered, and if hits, will trigger vW to 3142.25
Still has a vM to 2134, which if hits and falls through, will trigger vM to 1369.5



The Russell had similar action to the S&P.
Needs to hold lows and trigger vW to 1424.2
otherwise further selling towards 870.2 is likely
Click for Update



The Nasdaq has formed some pretty solid looking vW's to 8576.25 and 9184 on the hourly chart if can hold the lows.
Click for Update



The Dow has formed vW's to 23544 and 27429
Click for Update



Bonds still battling between vW's and vM's
Fridays action triggered vW to 242'15 and 249'26
Click for Update



Gold ripped higher this week gaining back a lot of last weeks loss.
It has been very volatile and has large moves possible in both directions.
Click for Update



Oil tried to rally earlt in the week but closed lower.  
It is sitting just above recent lows, and just above vM to 19.91
If doesn't bounce from there 8.91 is a possibility.
Click for Update



The crazy moves in the Dollar continue.
Hard to chart here with no intraday charts available,
but looks like has a vM to around 93.835 that is triggered.
Click for Update



XLF fell through vM's 21.90 and 20.14, but have bounced back above.
Needs to hold recent lows to avoid triggering vM 13.80
Click for Update


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Sunday, March 22, 2020

Week Ending 3-20-20

Stocks fell lower but had some small rallies in between.  The Russell did fare better than other indices on Friday, which may be a good sign.  Oil fell as low as 20.52 closing at 22.63.
The Dollar has had a huge run the last two weeks, rising over 8%


The S&P made new lows on Friday, triggering vM to 1369.5 and nulled vW 3579.25
Has a small vM to 2134 that is triggered.



The Russell was relatively stronger than the other indices Friday, which is often a good sign.
It is currently battling between vW 1232.2 and vM 942.2



The Nasdaq hit vM 686.25 and has a vM to 6605 just underneath it.
If doesn't bounce from here or 6605, 5701.5 is likely.
Click for Update



The Dow hit a vM at 18781, see if can hold to avoid selling towards 12797
Click for Update



Bonds battling between small vW's and larger vM's
Click for Update



Oil has continued to get hammered.  
It's forming small patterns higher but vM to 19.91 is still triggered.  
Some are calling for $11.00 but I'm not seeing it yet.
Click for Update



Gold has taken a beating as well.  
Trying to form and trigger vW to 1641.2
vM's to 1437.8 and 1405.2 are triggered.



The Dollar launched this week hitting vW 103.645 and nulling longer term vM to 87.445
Except for long term patterns to 0.65 from 2001-2003,
I don't currently see any vM's lower.
VW to 105.515 is triggered.
Click for Update



XLF has vM to 13.80 triggered and has nulled vW's to 31.79 and 34.78 
Click for Update


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Sunday, March 15, 2020

Week Ending 3/13/20 Covid-19 & Oil

The sell off was further increased by more Covid-19 cases, and possibly more importantly, oil falling 20% due to Saudia Arabia and Russia not coming to an agreement.  Trump is buying oil, and many places are taking precautionary measures.  The major index futures hit target prices Thursday night, and bounced Friday.  Hopefully (hope isn't a strategy!) those were the lows.  Large patterns have formed to around 40% lower.  We need new highs to null them.


Note:  There is a lot of "noise" (target prices and necklines denoted yellow indicating that pattern target price has hit) on these charts.  Often hit target prices and their necklines act as support/resistance, so they are still on there for future reference.



The S&P has fallen and hit target price at 2389 and then bounced up 8%.
The S&P needs to hold the recent lows to avoid triggering a vM to 1369.5 (-40% from the recent low.)



The Russell fell and hit vM 1114.9 formed in Dec 2018.
Needs to hold recent lows to avoid further selling towards 870.2, 
which was triggered and un-triggered by Thursday night/ Fridays price action.





The Nasdaq came close to hitting vM 686.25 before bouncing.
It's currently sitting on a neckline for vM to 5701.5
Needs to hold recent lows to avoid further selling.
Click for Update



The Dow hit vM 21242
Needs to hold recent lows to avoid further selling towards 12797
Click for Update



Bonds hit a vW at 243'25, and have so far reversed.
VM to 182'31 is triggered.
Click for Update



Short term treasuries have formed head and shoulder patterns, but do have much larger patterns higher.

2 Year
Click for Update

10 Year
Click for Update



Lots of "noise" on this chart.
Oils fell 20% when Russia and Saudia Arabia couldn't come to a deal.
vM's to 25.58, 24.39, and 19.91 are triggered.
Click for Update



The Dollar came within .10 of vM 94.600, which was right at neckline for vW 101.215
If can hold recent lows, expecting vW 101.215
Click for Update



Gold has formed and triggered vW's to 1437.8 and 1405.2



Copper has triggered vM to 1.85
Still looks like a lot of pressure on it.  
Needs markets to rise to turn around.
Click for Update



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Sunday, March 8, 2020

Week Ending 3/6/20 Covid-19

Markets have been falling after the corona virus began spreading beyond China around February 20, 2020.  Although I think the selloff is an overreaction, it may have pushed markets to technical levels, where even if the virus is contained or eliminated in the near future, more selling may occur.  The fed recently cut rates again, and with markets at all time highs, I don't understand or agree with the move.  If equity indexes fall much lower they will trigger patterns with target prices 15-20% below recent lows.  

Note:  There is a lot of "noise" (target prices and necklines denoted yellow indicating that pattern has hit) on these charts.  Often hit target prices and their necklines act as support/resistance, so they are still on there for future reference.



The S&P needs to hold recent lows to avoid 
further selling towards 2858.75, 2746, 2706, and 2389.
It is also close to the level from 2018 labeled 
"If we close above, new highs likley".
If we start closing under that level now, 
I will expect selling towards 2389.



The Russell made new lows Friday and closed below the neckline for 1207.4
It also has a target price at 1218.2 that has triggered.  
Much more selling below these current levels, I think this area will be inevitable



Similar to the S&P, the Nasdaq needs to avoid breaking recent lows 
to avoid triggering target prices lower at 7736.75 and 6605.



The Dow needs to hold recent lows to avoid further selling.

NOTE: I drew another neckline because the original neckline (probably drawn on an hourly chart)
included excess on the daily chart.  When I drew it on the daily chart without the excess, the pattern hit (target price 29463)



For some reason my drawings for bonds have dissapeared, 
but it doesn't matter because any head and shoulders patterns lower would be nulled.  
Bonds gained 6.69% on Friday, which as far as I know, and per this chart, is the biggest move in bonds I've seen.
VW to 243'25 is triggered.



The Dollar came very close to 99.890 before turning lower.  
vM to 94.600 is triggereed.



Gold is trying to move higher and null vM to 1452.9



Copper has triggered vM to 1.85
It is still above the neckline for 3.7840 but much more selling will un-trigger.



Lots of "noise" on this chart, but oil looks like on its way to 37.69 and has triggered vM's to 24.39 and 19.91



Lumber has triggered vM to 352.7 and much lower will trigger 315.9



VIX



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