12/11/16 FOMC Announcement

The Fed will likely raise rates this week.  The stock market has continued to make new all time highs following the Trump rally.  Bonds will likely get hit if they raise rates. Stock indexes have been going parabolic, and look like they want higher.  A big pullback wouldn't surprise me, but think will get to 20300 on the Dow and 2370 S&P

/ES has vW's to 2370+ area.  Think will see some exhaustion there.

Dow has vW triggered to 20311

The dollar has formed a vM to 98.057

If hits there, expecting a test of the 200ma.

Oil has triggered a vW to 63.20 which will null vM to 19.41

Expecting resistance around 63.20

XLF has gone parabolic since 11/8 

Expecting Exhaustion at 24.74

IBB has been trading sideways.  Has large patterns both ways.  Needs to hold 240, and preferably the neckline for 398.28

11/14/16 Trump Wins

On 11/8/16 the Dow futures fell over 1000 points as talking heads said the stock market was expecting Clinton to win.  In the early morning of 11/9/16 Trump was announced the winner.  By the market open, the DOW had regained the 1000 points and then some.  On 11\10\16 it made new all time highs.

https://www.tradingview.com/i/vyAZRwij/

The S&P has vW's to 2239.5 and 2372.75 that are triggered.  Recent action has formed vM's below 2000, but a close above 2191.5 will null them.  

The Russel made new all time highs nulling large vM's lower.  vW's to 1404.6 and 1599 and triggered.

The Nasdaq had recently hit a double bottom target price at 4886.5 and made new all time highs before turning over on election night.  vW to 5414.25 is triggered.

The Dow has recently made all time highs.  A few vW's from 19,000 to 20,000 are triggered.

Oil is sitting at its 200ma.  Short term vM's to 41.17 and 34.97 are triggered.  It has vW's to 59.00 and 63.20, but needs to hold 39.19 to avoid nulling them.  Also has a larger time frame vW to 74.21 that is formed.  Still has a larger time frame vM to 19.41 but if vW to 63.20 works out it will be nulled.

The Dollar has hit vW to 99.59

vW to 103.95 is triggered

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Bonds have fallen, hitting vM to 163'17

vM to 152'15 is triggered.  Looks like could easily rip higher towards 175 first though.

Gold has untriggered vW to 1549.5 and triggered vM to 1129.8

Copper launched filling a gap at 2.6455 and close to hitting vW target price at 2.7582

XLF has vW's to 23.45 and 24.74 that are triggered.

IBB has large patterns both directions.  A Trump presidency should be bullish for the sector.

9/12/16

Stocks got hammered Friday after comments from Rosenberg, with the S&P and the Dow falling back to where they were just before the Brexit selloff.  The Nasdaq and Russell fell a bit heavier, but are still 2-3% above the beginning of the  Brexit selloff .  Bonds, metals, and oil also got hit.  Gold was down about .7%  and oil was down 4%.

/ES sold off heavily, falling through vM 2143.75, and hitting vM 2115 at the end of the day.  It is sitting at levels just before the Brexit selloff.   See if can reverse off this 2115 level.  If fails here, expecting 2073 area, if that fails, expecting to see a test of 2000.  

The Russell has been taking the stairs up, but took the elevator down Friday.  No real chart patterns setup except an ugly double top to 1192.92.  Needs to hold that area.

NASDAQ needs to regain 50ma

DOW

$

Bonds got hit 1.47% and are close to hitting vM 179'16

Gold id just above its 10ma.  See if can continue towards 1550

Copper didn't make much of a move Friday.  Is still below its 200ma.

Oil is sitting at its 10ma, and just below the neckline for vM to 32.39

Needs to maintain its 10ma, and hold above $40, otherwise expecting 32.39 and probably lower.

XLF

IBB has vM to 276.85

Needs to retake its ma's, which are all converging.

7/15/16

Stocks indexes have broken above the Brexit 'Scene of the Crime" levels.  Expecting a pullback towards the 10 ma's, but ultimately expecting higher towards S&P 2235 and Dow 20000.  Stock futures sold off in the final minutes of trade after Turkey's military staged a coup that was quickly shut down, mostly by civilians and the Police.  Oil rallied on the news but still has vM triggered to below 40.  Metals and Bonds look like they want to test their 50ma while the Dollar looks set to rip higher.

/ES has a small vM towards 2113.75formed inside a longer on to 2239.25 that is triggered.

The Russell has  Vw to 1404.6 is triggered.   Current all time highs is 1292.3

Nasdaq has W to 4886.5 that has broken out and a vW higher to 5414.25

The Dow has vW's towards 20000 triggered.

The Dollar has vW's higher to 97.9 and 99.5 that are triggered.  It has also been basing under the 200ma,  forming a bullish flag towards 99.73.  It is starting to close above it's 200ma as well.  This could be an explosive move which would be bad on metals and oil, and possibly stocks shorter term.

Oil is currently above its 10ma.  And has triggered a vW towards 50.29

See if can hold the 10ma.  Otherwise expecting vM to 37.76 which is triggered.

Gold has vW to 1549.5 that is triggered.

Bonds have a vM to 179'16 that is triggered.

7/4/16

Markets fell further Monday(6/27) after the Brexit and have so far bounced "returning to scene of the crime" (SOC).  Oil for the most part followed suit.  Gold and silver are rallying.  Copper has bounced back strongly after a sharp fall on Brexit vote.

S&P futures hit 1981.5 on Monday and have bounced back towards SOC at 2106(Verniman's #) - 2119.5 (Thursday nights high).  Expecting to test 2106 to 2119.75.  If breaks above, 2154.25 on the radar.  If can't, expecting 1955.5

Russell

Nasdaq hit a vM at 4193.5, but broke well below.   Just above its 200ma.

The Dow fell hitting vM to 16967 and has so far bounce.  If breaks above 18083, expecting 19653, otherwise 13402

The Dollar has a bull flag set up for higher aligning with towards vW to 99.599

Bonds still rallying

Gold has rallied and triggered 1549.5  

Silver raliied even heavier in recent days.

Copper fell on Brexit but has rebounded heavily

Oil is balancing between breaking out towards 74.21 or 37.76

IBB

XLF

6/24/16 Brexit

Markets around the world got hammered on the Brexit vote to leave the EU.  U.S stock futures fell heavily Thursday night, hitting the 5% circuit breaker, and has so far been bought, however it gave most of it back towards the end of day Friday and now(Sunday evening) is near Thursday nights lows.

The S&P has formed and triggered vMs from 1955.5 to 2000.5

See if can hold its 200ma, otherwise 1981.5 and 1955.5 on the radar.
*NOTE: The UPRO and SPXU had a stop hunt while /ES just tested highs before brexit vote.

The Russell has vMs to 1056 and 1025.4 formed and triggered.  It is currently sitting on its 200ma.  

A break below 1000 could see much lower.  vM to 858.2 is triggered.

The Nasdaq looks in worse shape than the other indexes.  Has a vM to 3948.25 which is much closer to its recent low at 3862.25

The Nikkei is well below its 200 ma.  If 14800 cant hold, expecting vMs to 13140 and 13036

The Dollar launched on the Brexit news.  vWs to 96.87 and 97.983 are triggered.   It is currently testing its 200ma. 

Bonds making new highs and looking like wants higher.

Gold has formed and triggered a vW to 1549.5

Oil is sitting on its 50ma.  vM to 45.25 is triggered.  If doesn't hold this 47 area, vM to 37.76 will be triggered.

Copper was trying to retake its 200ma Thursday before the Brexit selloff.  It is currently above its 10ma and just below the 50ma.  Their projection looks bullish.  See if the 10 and 50 ma's can retake the 200ma.

XLF dove below its 200ma

IBB has vM to 223.13, however price has came close to it a few time and basing, creating poor lows, therefore making a break through and well below the target price of 223.13

If price goes much lower vM to 55.66 will be triggered also.