Friday, August 21, 2015

8/21/15 - AAPL, BTU, DDD, WBA, SPY's - Big Down Day

Brutal day for stock indexes as most stocks were heavily in the red.  Expected these moves to possibly happen over the next week or two, instead they happened in the last two days.  Many things did not correlate normally, such as the U.S Dollar v.s. stock indexes/oil, and gold v.s. silver.  As ugly as things look, many things are at bounceable levels.  However if cannot make constructive gains, expecting much lower.  And one more caveat, the indexes will need to make new highs in order to null newly formed bearish patterns.

Left to Right - 1min, 10 min, 30 min, 1 hour (Magenta), and Daily MACD 



There is a lot of "stuff" on this chart but it is all relevant.  /ES fell through a LIS, creating a gap there at the 2020 level, also hitting all of the current vM pattern price targets.  Today's action has formed  price targets towards 1823.5.  The /ES is at a bounceable levels, but could easily get hammered down further towards 1823.  Needs to hold 1944.5



The Russel, relatively, was the best performer only down .97%.  This would usually be bullish for the overall market, but considering is still has vM to 1129.5 is a bit concerning.



The Nasdaq plummeted through its 200ma and 250 ma, coming within about 25 points of vM to 4171.50.   10ma<50ma.



The Dow came within about 200 points from vM to 16191.



NYSE, same story.



The Nikkei fell to its 200ma, and falling just below vM target price of 19076.



VIX



The Dollar has fallen substantially the last couple of days along with stocks.  They usually move in opposite directions.  It is now below its 200ma.  10ma has crossed below its 50ma.



The Euro is sitting just below its 200ma.



Gold is above its 50ma.  Has formed vW's to 1204.7 and 1271.3.



Silver has not been moving with gold recently, however it does have bullish patterns forming.



Oil broke below $40.  Watching levels for a bounce at 39.06, 36.25, and 31.58.



Copper



XLF tanked below its 200 and 250 ma's.  It is sitting just above vM target price of 23.48



IBB looked like it was going to rally heavy after gaping down in the a.m., but then reversed and closed down with everything else.  Came within 4 points of vM 336.01



AAPL fell over 6% hitting a vM target price of 108.6, and filling an order from 8/20/15 (Buy AAPL at 108.68, stop 104.47 (-4%), target 148.47 (32.6%))
 Sitting just above stop at 104.47



DDD held up well on substantial volume considering overall market decline.



BTU still going up on heavier volume with Soros news.  If he doesn't have ulterior motives, (trying to take the company and stock to zero) it looks like could head higher to 2.30 (+20%) and 3.44 (+45%).



WBA fell over 4.5% filling the gap at 85.93.  Close to vM target price of 84.76.  Needs to hold this 84.75 - 85.93 area to avoid further selling towards 80.78, which is just below LIS at 81.01



SPY looks headed to 195.88, which may be a good entry for December or January $225  calls.  They are extremely cheap at $0.16 and $.31
 UPRO
SPXU


Economic data For next week

7/24 - Watch for Asia's  reaction to Fridays U.S market fall.  - 0730 Chicago Fed

7/25 - 0800 S&P Case/Shiller/HPI - 0900 New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence - Earnings: TOL1, BBY 1

7/26 - 0730 Durable Goods Orders - 0845 PMI - 0930 Oil - Earnings: ANF 1

7/27 - 0730 GDP!!!, Jobless Claims - 0900 Pending Home Sales Tax - 0930 Nat Gas - 1000 KC Mfg - Earnings: ULTA 2, TIF1 DG 1

7/28 - 0730 Personal Income and Outlays - 0900 Consumer Sentiment

No comments:

Post a Comment