Sunday, November 25, 2018

Thanksgiving Week 11-23-18

Stock indices fell again for the week constructing larger patterns lower, while bonds rallied back above the 149'24 level.  the Dollar continues to look strong while oil is getting hammered.


The S&P has not been able to hold the vM 2489.5 neckline lower,
and has now formed and triggered a vM to 2273.  
Currently expecting 2489.5, it will need to rebound from there to avoid further selling towards 2273.
Another possibility could be a W with a base near the 2070-ish area.



The Russell has triggered another vM to 1218.2
and is sitting just above the neckline (currently 1468).
Next low is 1415.10 mad back in February. 



The Nasdaq has formed and triggered a new vM lower as well.
VM's to 6202.75 and 5478.5 are triggered.



The Dow has vM's triggered to 23292 and 21698



The XLF will need stocks to rally to pull it higher.  
Has patterns forming higher, but still looks ugly.



Oil continues to get hammered and busting through target prices.  
$40 wouldn't surprise me at all.
Click For Update



The dollar has a vM to 94.410 formed, but ultimately looks like it wants higher.



From 10/28/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buyin opportunity for vW to 1708.3
Click For Update



Bonds have rallied back above 149'24,
and have formed and triggered vW to 155'28
Click For Update



















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Sunday, November 4, 2018

Week Ending 11/2/18 - Bonds back below 149

Stocks indices bounced this week, retesting, and/or retaking their vM necklines lower.
Bonds have fallen back below the vM target price at 149'24 which I believe is a key level for the broader market.
The dollar looks like it could trade sideways/lower, but ultimately looks like it wants higher, which will likely put pressure on stocks and oil.

Note: All dates on charts that say 10/28/18, were intended to say 10/26/18


The S&P so far has bounced from last weeks selling,
and is re-testing the vM neckline to 2489.5
Price needs to re-take the neckline, currently >2745 (A)
Otherwise expecting further selling towards 2489.5 (B), 
which will null vW to 3106


The Russell is also re-testing its neckline.
However, it has closed above it.  


The Nasdaq is re-testing its neckline as well, and making better progress.


The Dow is retesting its neckline as well.



The XLF will need stocks to rally to pull it higher.  
Has patterns forming higher, but still looks ugly.



Oil hit vM to 64.45, and has closed considerably lower.
Expecting 60.43 and if that doesn't hold, 
expecting M to 53.59 area


The $ nulled shorter term vM to 91.710 
and is re-testing vW neckline to 97.670



From 10/26/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buying opportunity for vW to 1708.3



Bonds made an early attempt in the week to rally,
but ultimately closed below the recent 
larger time frame target price at 149.24 
I think this is a key level for the broader markets right now.
Has formed and triggered small vM lower towards 147'03






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Sunday, October 28, 2018

Week Ending 10/26/18

Stock indices fell sharply in the last few weeks, coinciding with bonds hitting a target price and bouncing.  A further drop (7-10%) in equities and oil wont surprise me at all, unless bonds and the Dollar turn lower.  


The S&P fell the last few weeks giving up the last four(correction) months of gains.  A vM to 2489.5 has formed and been triggered.  A break below the 2530 area will null vW higher towards 3106.



The Russell has formed and triggered vM to 1330.20.  
14415.10 is the low made back in February.



The Nasdaq has formed and triggered a large vM to 6202.75, 
which was previously a vW target, 
and then held as support a few months later.
Click For Update




The Dow has formed and triggered a vM to 23292,
which is just above the null point of 23088 for vW's higher.



The XLF has nulled all vW's higher.
Expecting vM to 23.06



Oil hit target price of 73.78 and has been trading somewhat sideways.  
vM to 64.45 and 60.43 are triggered,
but ultimately expecting a move towards 89.56



The Dollar is sitting in two large opposing patterns.
The vM to 87.445 came close, 
but has formed and triggered a well constructed vW to 101.215 .



Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buyin opportunity for vW to 1708.3
Click For Update



Bonds hit a vM target price at 149.24 and is trying to bounce,
which I beleive is the reason for the downturn in stocks. 
In order for equities to rally, we need bonds and the dollar to turn lower.
vM's to 118 and 113 are triggered, but we could easily see price move into the 160-170 areas first.









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Saturday, March 10, 2018

Week Ending 3/9/18

Markets started to fall in early February, but look like they are bouncing back towards new highs with the Nasdaq already there.  Oil, the Dollar, and Gold are all trading sideways pretty much in correlation.  TLT has fallen to vM target price levels.  


The S&P fell sharply after missing vW 2880.75 by a couple of points.  It formed a vM to 2537.75 and has so far bounced.  It has formed and triggered a vW to target price to 3106.



The Russell also just missed its vW target price around 1625 before turning lower.  
Has formed a vM to 1313.65, above 1619.2 will null.
Has formed and triggered a vW to 1706.4 



The Nasdaq also just missed a target price at 7076 just before turning lower.
However,  it has climbed above the nulled target price at 7076, and closed at all-time highs!
Also unlike the other indices, the Nasdaq has nulled its vM lower that was created during this small correction.
Has formed and triggered a vW to 7797.25



The Dow has formed and triggered (triggering) vW's to 28337 and 29042.
Above 26684 will null vM to 19668



The XLF hit its bull flag target at 30.27 before turning lower.  
Has formed and triggered vW to 32.87
Above 30.32 will null vM to 23.06



Oil has formed a vM to 48.05.  Doubt it happens, if it does it will probably be a buying opportunity.
Needs to hold above 59 to avoid triggering.  Above 66.66 will null.
vW's to 73.78 and 89.56 are triggered



Still expecting vM to 87.445 for the Dollar,
however, a bounce towards 91.5 to 92 wouldn't surprise me.



Gold continues testing the neckline of vW to 1708.3
Has formed a small vM to 1258.4.  Above 1365.4 will null.


The TLT fell and hit vM target price at 116.77
vM to 115.53 is still triggered.
If doesn't bounce from these levels, vM to 89.5 will be triggered,
 which isn't far off the lows from where the ETF was first traded.



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Sunday, January 28, 2018

Week Ending 1/26/18

The S&P hit and breached 2848.
It has formed and triggered vW to 2880.75



The Russell has hit and breached above vW to 15970.5, which was the last longer term vW higher.
The Russell is no longer supported by intraday charts, but an estimate is a vW towards the 1625 area.
Does have a balanced target / bull flag to 1676.4 area.
Note the volume decay.



The Nasdaq has vW to 7076



Short sellers continue to get slaughtered in the Dow.



The XLF is just shy of its 30.27 Bull Flag target price



Oil has triggered vW's to 73.78 and 83.56
Watch for correlation between oil and the Dollar at their price targets of 73.78 for oil, 
and 87.445 for the Dollar 



Expecting vM to 87.445 for the Dollar



Gold has nulled vW's to the 1250-1200 area, and is close to triggering vW to 1708.3.
Needs to hold 1350 to keep 1708.3 triggered.



TLT has a composite vM to 116.77 and 115.53 that is close to being triggered.  If their target prices hit, vM to 89.50 will be triggered.
Click for Update



IBB has a vW triggered towards new highs at 130.36







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Sunday, January 21, 2018

Week ending 1/20/18

So far this year markets have launched with very small and abrupt pullbacks.  Not much has changed on other securities since the last post.



The S&P has continued higher with very small abrupt pullbacks.  
It has formed and triggered a vW to 2848.




The Russell has hit vW to 1597.20.  I don't see any longer timeframe patterns higher.  Watch correlation between this setting up and the S&P's 2848 target price.




Oil has triggered vW's to 73.78 and 83.56,
and nulled patterns to sub 40.


vM to 90.565 has hit and price traded and closed signifiv=cantly under.  
vM to 87.445 highly likely with oil possibly climbing higher.

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