Sunday, November 4, 2018

Week Ending 11/2/18 - Bonds back below 149

Stocks indices bounced this week, retesting, and/or retaking their vM necklines lower.
Bonds have fallen back below the vM target price at 149'24 which I believe is a key level for the broader market.
The dollar looks like it could trade sideways/lower, but ultimately looks like it wants higher, which will likely put pressure on stocks and oil.

Note: All dates on charts that say 10/28/18, were intended to say 10/26/18


The S&P so far has bounced from last weeks selling,
and is re-testing the vM neckline to 2489.5
Price needs to re-take the neckline, currently >2745 (A)
Otherwise expecting further selling towards 2489.5 (B), 
which will null vW to 3106


The Russell is also re-testing its neckline.
However, it has closed above it.  


The Nasdaq is re-testing its neckline as well, and making better progress.


The Dow is retesting its neckline as well.



The XLF will need stocks to rally to pull it higher.  
Has patterns forming higher, but still looks ugly.



Oil hit vM to 64.45, and has closed considerably lower.
Expecting 60.43 and if that doesn't hold, 
expecting M to 53.59 area


The $ nulled shorter term vM to 91.710 
and is re-testing vW neckline to 97.670



From 10/26/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buying opportunity for vW to 1708.3



Bonds made an early attempt in the week to rally,
but ultimately closed below the recent 
larger time frame target price at 149.24 
I think this is a key level for the broader markets right now.
Has formed and triggered small vM lower towards 147'03






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