This post will not include any charts, as not a lot has changed. Refer to last weeks charts and updates.
Stocks ended higher for the week. Banks bounced as well. See if they can recover and null recent vM's formed lower.
Monday, May 25, 2020
Sunday, May 17, 2020
Week Ending 5/15/20 - Banks - WFC
The stock indices have had pretty big moves, but have ended up mostly trading sideways the last couple weeks. Banks however look particularly weak. The week prior Wells Fargo got near the Corona virus lows, and traded lower this week. The XLF and other banks are forming and triggering vM's lower as well. Gold looks like it could break out and the Dollar has been sideways.
The S&P has traded sideways the last couple weeks,
although they were fairly big moves.
If doesn't hold Fridays lows,
expecting further selling towards 2700 and 2572.75
The Russell is similar to the S&P.
Needs to hold this weeks lows
to avoid further selling towards 1160 and 1048.1
Gold looks like it could break out from here,
The Dollar has been trading sideways
Oil is back near $30. Has a vM at 30.43.
See if can push through there or if it acts as resistance.
Also technically has a vW to 80.82 that is triggered
when taking into account the negative price action.
Although I didn't do a market outlook for the previous week,
I did notice banks looked weak, in particular WFC,
which has fallen below Corona virus levels.
Wells Fargo is below Corona virus lows.
C has vM's to 34.23 and 25.47
Deutche Bank has a vM to 4.46, which is 30% lower,
and is already lower than the 6.50-7.00 area
that caused a stir in the markets last year.
Sunday, May 3, 2020
Week Ending 5-1-20
Stock indices were a bit volatile for the week closing slightly down, with the exception of the Russell which was slightly up. Oil was up and is near $20 again. Bonds and gold were down.
The S&P hit vM at 2811.5
See if can bounce from here towards vW 2990 and 3016.75
Otherwise expecting further selling towards 2749.
The Russell has hit vW 1251.6, fell through slightly, and so far bounced back above.
vW's to 1424.2 and 1563.7 are still triggered.
Bonds still pretty much sideways.
Has triggered vM's to 221'15 and 213'11
Oil is back near $20.
Has vW to 30.43 that is triggered.
Also techincally has a vW to 80.82 that is triggered
when taking into account the negative price action.
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Sunday, April 26, 2020
Week Ending 4/24/20 - Oil Went Negative
Stock indices traded sideways this week recording small losses. Oil contracts had a crazy move with the front contracts falling to -$40 a barrel due to oversupply and lack of storage.
The S&P traded sideways for the week.
Needs to re-take recent highs to null vM's to 2660.75 and 2567.25.
I think a break above or below this range the S&P has been trading
in the last couple weeks will determine where it goes.
Bonds traded slightly higher for the week nulling vM's lower.
Gold is making large patterns both directions.
The Dollar has triggered vM to 93.835
The expiring oil futures contracts fell into negative territory this week due to oversupply and lack of storage. Looking at longer term charts, I plotted vM's with price targets to the negative territory, but didn't think it would happen. Not sure where it goes from here, but all patterns lower, including the negative ones have hit, and any vW's higher were nulled.
Sunday, April 19, 2020
Week Ending 4/17/20 - Oil Updated!
Stock indices were higher for the week with a gap up on Thursday. Oil on TOS and FINVIZ is showing a different price than trading view. I think the contract hasn't rolled over yet.
The S&P closed higher for the week.
It hit a small vW at 2838.75,
and has climbed and closed above.
vW's to 3142.25 and 3450.5 are triggered.
The Russell has vW's to 1424.2 and 1456.7 that are triggered.
vM to 1010.5 is formed, 1265.6 will null.
Bonds are still battling between short term patterns.
VW's higher are triggered unless bonds fall significantly.
Click for Update
The Dollar has triggered vM to 93.835
TOS and FINVIZ are showing a different price than Trading View. I think Trading View is still showing the prior month contract [K20] and TOS is on [M20]. On TOS oil gapped up on Thursday and closed down 1.53% at 24.14.
Trading View is showing no gap, a drop down 8.05% closing at 18.27
UPDATE Mon 4/20/20 10:30am: The [K20] contract fell over 40% on Monday to around $10. The [M20] contract fell about 9% to around 22.75. Some are saying it's at $10, but the USO is more reflective of the [M20] which is only down about 9% as well.
Update Man 4/20/20 3pm: /CLK20 fell even further falling into negative territory. It was down more than negative 30%.
Click for Update
UPDATE Mon 4/20/20 10:30am: The [K20] contract fell over 40% on Monday to around $10. The [M20] contract fell about 9% to around 22.75. Some are saying it's at $10, but the USO is more reflective of the [M20] which is only down about 9% as well.
Update Man 4/20/20 3pm: /CLK20 fell even further falling into negative territory. It was down more than negative 30%.
Sunday, April 12, 2020
Easter Weekend -
Stock indices rallied higher on the short week and had the biggest weekly gain in 50 years.
Oil fell back under $23 and bonds closed lower.
The S&P closed up over 10% for the week.
It is sitting just below the support/resistance area
from last year which may act as a level again.
VW to 2838.75 and 3142.25 are triggered
It has also formed a vW to new highs at 3450.50.
The Russell was the biggest gainer for the week,
up over 18% which is a good sign for stocks.
They're a bit lop-sided ,but vW's to 1424.2 and 1456.7 are triggered.
VM to 870.2 has as been un-triggered.
Bonds were down for the week and are testing necklines for vM's to 216'08 and 211'11
Gold hit a long term vW at 1708.3
along with vW 1706.3 and has pushed higher.
Has several long term vW's higher that are triggering,
along with large shorter term patterns higher forming.
It has also nulled short term vM's lower
Gold Weekly Chart
Oil is fell this week and is back near $23
VM to 19.10 is triggered.
Sunday, April 5, 2020
Week Ending 4-3-20 - Oil, Lumber, Copper
This will be a shortened update for the week, since the major indices have mostly moved sideways and are similar to each other. Oil fell heavily to a target price at 19.91 and has so for bounced. Bonds are still volatile, but the daily moves were closer to normal.
The S&P traded sideways for the week. Has patterns in both directions.
Bonds still battling between vW's and vM's.
Volatility was lighter, and closed slightly higher for the week.
vW's to 242'15 and 249'26 are triggered.
Volatility was lighter, and closed slightly higher for the week.
vW's to 242'15 and 249'26 are triggered.
Oil hit vM target price at 19.91 and has so far bounced over 40%.
I think overall markets need 19.91 to hold to avoid further decline.
If falls back below 19.91, 8.91 is a high possibility.
The crazy moves in the Dollar continue.
It is currently battling between long term vW to 105.515
and shorter term vM's to 93.85 and 92.865
Copper fell through vM 2.1705 by 5%,
but looks to be building a base around that level.
Needs to hold recent lows to avoid further selling towards vM 1.85
Lumber fell through vM 277.1 and triggered longer vM's lower.
vW to 619.5 was nulled by this weeks actions.
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