Sunday, May 1, 2016

421/16

Stock markets rallied, except for the Nasdaq, along with oil to new recent highs this week, closing the week higher.  The lack of a freeze agreement last Sunday between OPEC members at first appeared bearish as oil opened down 6%.  Then the following day rallied back on news of a Kuwaiti oil worker strike, which abruptly ended, followed by breaking recent highs and into vW target prices on talks of another meeting which was denied by Russia on Wednesday.




/ES is testing its 10ma and flirting with necklines in both directions.  Needs to hold 2070 to avoid further selling towards 2042 and 2029.75.  Otherwise expecting 2124.75



The Russell rallied back above its 200ma, filling a gap and hitting a vW target price of 1140.9 and is now holding above it.  Watch this 1140.9 level and the 10ma.
The 10ma is also crossing above the 200ma.



The Nasdaq fell hitting vM target price at 4432.5 and just above its 200ma.  Watch Nasdaq closely at this area as it will sway other indexes if dragged below its 200ma.



The Dow hit vW 17967 and then breached and closed above 18000 .  18351 (18334 for futures) is all time high.



The Nikkei has triggered vW to 19881 and 18631 which will be near its 10ma.
Needs to push and hold above 17940



Oil is above its 10ma after an interesting week in oil news.  Has a gap at 45.22 which will likely be filled in the near future, but looks like could easily test its 10ma first. Has formed vM's towards 42.21(>44.45 nulls) and 40.41(<44.49 nulls) however if you only look at the regular trading hours, vM to 40.41 is nulled.

Extended hours trading.  Shaded area is extended hours

Regular hours



The Dollar had a volatile morning on Thursday when the ECB announced it would leave rates unchanged and expand its asset purchase.  It closed up for the week, but below last weeks high.  Expecting it to return to the ECB event,  Will then need to hold 93.62 to avoid further selling towards 92.84 and then 89.38



Bonds appear to be rolling over and ma construction degrading.  Price is below 10 and 50ma's and 10ma near crossing below its 50ma.



Gold closed up for the week, but below the 10 and 50 ma's, and near the lows following the ECB announcement.



Copper ma's looking constructive.



XLF was up for the week hitting vW's to 22.99 band 23.46.  It also closed above its 200ma.  See if it can hold its 200ma.  vW to 25.13 is triggered.



IBB has vW's to 298.04 and 318.19 triggered.




No comments:

Post a Comment