On Thursday Janet Yellen announced no raise in interest rates, due to lack of inflation and China data. The market continued its rally, but sold off sharply into the close. The selloff continued through Friday, which was a Quad Witching day, which may have contributed to the selloff. Thursdays rally nulled intermediate vM's, but the late day selloff along with Fridays action formed new ones to almost the exact same levels. A positive note is that the Nasdaq and Russell futures closed above their 10ma's, and were only down 1% while the S&P were down 1.37% and 1.47%... usually a bullish sign.
/ES formed new vM's to 1929.25 and 1875, a close above 2011.25 will null them. Although it had a decent rebound into the close, expecting 1929.25 to hit, and possibly gap fill at 1921.25, but expecting these levels to hold. If buyers fail there, expecting 1875...If can't hold that we will likely test crash levels. Also if buyers cant defend 1875, it will trigger a vM to 1571.5.
The Russell closed above it's 10ma. MA projection looks positive, but price can change that quickly.
Nasdaq similar to the Russell
Dow
Japan didn't null it's intermediate term vM on Thursday like U.S. majors did.
Watch the Dollar closely. The fed needs it to rise, currently the the chart looks bearish. Needs to hold 92.50 area to avoid lower to 86.37
Thursdays FOMC announcement sparked a rally in bonds, pushing above the 10ma, and now sitting under the 50ma.
Gold has been volatile. 10ma trying to cross back above it's 50ma. A falling Dollar will support a rally in gold.
Oil is a tough call here. It has a vM triggered to 33.07, and one formed as low as 18.93, but could also be forming a large W to 80+. I think the recent rebound in oil is likely due to a bounce from the 8/24 crash, and a falling dollar because as far as I can tell nothing has changed. OPEC has shown no plans of reducing production, and actually more oil is coming to market. If oil can get back above $50, $56.80 is likely next resistance. Watch the dollar closely as it will likely dictate where oil goes in the near future.
Copper looks like it will fill gap to 2.393. Still expecting 2.54 unless stocks and China fall further south.
The XLF didn't rally at all on the FOMC statement, it just fell, tried to bounce back, and then fell further dragging its 50ma below its 200ma(Death Cross). Fridays action also triggered a vM to 21.06. It is down over 4% from the FOMC announcement, while the U.S. majors are down about 2%
IBB above it's 10ma after testing its 50ma. Watch if can maintain 10ma, and retake its 50ma. Current MA projection looks bullish.
SPY sitting below it's 10 ma. The SPXU and UPRO have something I've never seen before. UPRO and SPXU usually are a mirror image, including ma's. Since the 8/24 crash they seem to have decoupled. The SPXU 50ma is sitting just below it's 200ma and looks like wants to cross above, which would be a golden cross, while UPRO's 50ma is well below its 200ma.
UPRO
SPXU
P still looking strong in volatile market.
TWTR looking resilient as well.
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