Week ending 3/15/19

Stock indices rallied for the week with the S&P retaking the high made just below all time highs.  Other indices arre close.  Bonds still have patterns both ways though.

The ES has rallied and closed above the

high made just before last years drop, 

which is also the high just below new all time highs. 

Could see some sideways action,

but if the Russell can follow suit, expecting new all time highs.

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The Nasdaq has nulled short term vM's lower, 

and sitting just below the high made just below all time highs.

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The Dollar missed vW 97.670 by .050 

Calling that a hit.  vW to 92.010 was also nulled.

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Oil looks like it want 63.19

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Bonds have been trading sideways and have several target prices both ways.  

Price is close to hitting vW 162'08.  If it hits and turns lower,

it should be good for stocks.

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Week Ending 3-8-19

The markets are back below my bull/bear lines 2770 for the S&P and 1540 for the Russell.  On Thursday the Russell fell significantly heavier (2% v.s. .65%-.93%) than the other indices, which is usually a leader of the trend.  If stock indices do go to lower vM target prices, they will form patterns to test last years lows.

The ES barely missed vW 2820.25 and turned lower.  

vM to 2721.75 is triggered and vM to 2641 is formed.

2770 is my bull/bear line.

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The Russell hit vM 1538 and fell below.  

vM to 1469.7 is triggered.

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The Nasdaq has hit vM 7005 and has so far bounced.

vM to 6794.25 has formed.

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The Dow needs to retake 26200 to null vM's lower.

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XLF looks 50/50 either way.

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The Dollar is fighting between two patterns. 

VW to 99.890 and vM to 92.010

Shorter term vW 97.670 is close to hitting.

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Gold still trading sideways

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Copper triggered vW to 3.7840

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Oil has small vM to 53.13 triggered.

If that on works it will likely form a vM sub $50.

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Bonds have vW to 162'08 and 164'25 which is close to triggering

which will likely be bad for stocks.

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Week Ending 3/1/19

Stocks continue to grind higher.  Oil looks like it wants the $63 area.  Bonds took a hit the last several days.

Note: Not a lot has changed on some charts so refer to previous blog for them if omitted.

ES has vW to 2820.25 triggered.

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The russel hit vM to 1572 and has formed a vM to 1538.3

Above 1603.6 nulls.

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The Nasdaq hit it's vW targte price 7133.25

Expecting resistance at vW 7133.25

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Copper triggered vW to 3.7840

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Bonds fell the last several days and are sitting just above a gap at 156.06.

Also vM's to 156'01 and 154'15 are triggered.

Could see a bounce from the gap, but price is well below the neckline for vM's.  

If doesn't bounce from these price targets, expecting new highs in the stock indexes.

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Lumber futures were unable to bounce from vM 391.9

vM to 353.4 is triggered. 

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Week Ending 2/15/19

The indices have hit vW target prices(except the Nasdaq which is close) that look like resistance areas.  If can push through here, expecting new highs.  

The ES hit vW to to 2770.75

and expecting this area, to 2819 to be resistance.

If can push through that, expecting new highs, 

and vW to 3218 will be remain triggered.

Needs new highs to null vM's lower.

ES Shorter Term

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ES Longer Term

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The Russel hit vM to 1572

vW's to new highs are triggered if can get over last Oct highs.

Watch the Russells action.  Its moves usually precede other index moves.

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The Nasdaq is just below it's vW targte price 7133.25

Expecting resistance at vW 7133.25

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The Dow outperformed otherr indexes Friday

and closed above vW target price 25811.

Vw's to new highs arre triggered here as well.

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XLF has pushed above vW 26.06,

but on relatively light volume.

-From 2/8/19-

The XLF hit vW to 26.06

vM's to 25.10 and 24.77 have formed.

vW's to 27.31 and 28.98 are triggered.

Watch for resistance at 27.31

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Short term vM's lower were nulled on Friday.

vW to 63.19 is triggered.

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Gold has triggered vW to 1421.5 which will trigger vW to 1708.3

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Short term vM's lower were nulled on Friday.

vW to 63.19 is triggered.

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Bonds are trading between several necklines higher and lower.

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Week ending 2/8/19

Not a lot has changed in stock indices, chart-wise, and a few others in recent weeks, so refer to past charts.
Stocks have been rallying but are experiencing a pull back after Democrats announced a probe into Deutsche Bank.  Bonds have also hit a small vM target price and bounced, putting pressure on the markets.  Oil is forming patterns lower and lumber has hit a vW target price.  We are just below vW target prices in the indices, which I think will be resistance.  If we can push through them, well likely see new highs.



The S&P has formed a small vM to 2650.

Still expecting price to hit 2770.25, 

and expecting that area to the 2820 area to be resistance.

If can get through that, expecting new highs.

Click for Update

The XLF hit vW to 26.06

vM's to 25.10 and 24.77 have formed.

vW's to 27.31 and 28.98 are triggered.

Watch for resistance at 27.31

Click for Update

Oil is starting to form vM's lower

to 51.74, 50.69, and 47.90

vW to 63.19 will remain intact 

unless price dips below 42.36

Click for Update

Bonds have bounced from 158'10

and forming small vW's higher.

Also, price is about to trigger vW towards 174'05

This would likely be bad for the stock markets.

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Lumber has hit vW 438.8 and filled the gap just above.

Formed a small vM to 391.9 inside a larger vW to 589.6

Needs to hold above the 420 area to avoid triggering vM to 196.1

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Deutsche Bank has huge patterns lower.  

Looks like "Too Big to Fail"

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Week ending 1 18-19

Stocks have continued their rally, hitting vW target prices, and are retesting necklines for vM's lower.

Oil has hit a vW as well, and bonds hit a vM lower,

Watch bonds closely.  Whether its here or lower at the gap, if they start rallying, stocks will likely fall.

The ES has hit vW 2628.75, and continued climbing, 

and retaking vW neckline to 2273.

vW to 2770.25 (and new highs) are triggered.

Expecting 2270-2820 area to be resistance.

If gets above that, will expect new highs.

Click for Update

The Russell hit vW 1412.5 and continued climbing, and has retaken vM necklines lower.  

Expecting resistance at target price vW 1572.

It hasn't formed vW's to new highs, 

but if it continues higher it will.

Click for Update

The Nasdaq has a similar story as the Russell.

Expecting resistance at vW 7133.25

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Dow is similar to others as well.

Expecting resistance at vW 25811

It has triggered vW's to new highs.

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The XLF is sitting just below vW to 26.06

vW's to 27.31 and 29.98 are triggered.

Watch for resistance at 27.31

Click for Update

Bonds hit vM target price at 158'10

If bonds bounce from here I will be 

highly suspect of a rally in stocks.

If doesn't bounce expecting vM 156'10 

and gap fill at 156'06 and will watch for a bounce.

Click for Update

Oil has hit vW 53.54

See if can continue higher to newly formed vW to 63.19

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The dollar is just above vM 94.410

See if can bounce from there.

Otherwise expecting newly formed vW to 92.010

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Gold has un-triggered its vM to 1121.2, above 1369.4 nulls,

and will trigger vW to 1708.3

Click for Update

Week Ending 1-11-19

Stock indicies are still rallying, but all are about tohit vW target prices that will re-test their necklines for vM's lower.  If stocks start to roll over at these levels instead of consolidate and close above the necklines, we are likely to see much lower.  Several patterns higher, and to new highs are forming though.  

The ES has large patterns formed both ways.  

Currently headed toward vW 2628.75

See if can continue higher and take out vM neckline to 2168.25

Click for Update

The Russell hit vW 1412.5 and continued climbing.

On its way to vW 1462.5, which is right at the neckline for vM 1218.2 

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The Nasdaq formed vW to 6745

vM to 5478.5 is still triggered.

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Dow headed to vW 24346, which is just below the neckline for 21242

Click for Update

XLF is consolidating just below 24.64

See if is resistance or heads higher towards 26.06

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Oil has untriggered vM to 19.91and just below 53.34 target price.  

See if can continue higher to newly formed vW to 63.19

Click for Update

The dollar is just above vM 94.410

See if can bounce from there, 

otherwise expecting recent low around 93.7

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Gold has un-triggered its vM to 1121.2, above 1369.4 nulls,

and will trigger vW to 1708.3

Click for Update

Bonds have formed and triggered a vM to 156'05, 

which is right at the gap fill at 156'06

Click for Update

Copper is testing necklines between lower and higher.

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