Sunday, January 20, 2019

Week ending 1 18-19

Stocks have continued their rally, hitting vW target prices, and are retesting necklines for vM's lower.
Oil has hit a vW as well, and bonds hit a vM lower,
Watch bonds closely.  Whether its here or lower at the gap, if they start rallying, stocks will likely fall.


The ES has hit vW 2628.75, and continued climbing, 
and retaking vW neckline to 2273.
vW to 2770.25 (and new highs) are triggered.
Expecting 2270-2820 area to be resistance.
If gets above that, will expect new highs.



The Russell hit vW 1412.5 and continued climbing, and has retaken vM necklines lower.  
Expecting resistance at target price vW 1572.
It hasn't formed vW's to new highs, 
but if it continues higher it will.



The Nasdaq has a similar story as the Russell.
Expecting resistance at vW 7133.25



Dow is similar to others as well.
Expecting resistance at vW 25811
It has triggered vW's to new highs.



The XLF is sitting just below vW to 26.06
vW's to 27.31 and 29.98 are triggered.
Watch for resistance at 27.31



Bonds hit vM target price at 158'10
If bonds bounce from here I will be 
highly suspect of a rally in stocks.
If doesn't bounce expecting vM 156'10 
and gap fill at 156'06 and will watch for a bounce.



Oil has hit vW 53.54
See if can continue higher to newly formed vW to 63.19



The dollar is just above vM 94.410
See if can bounce from there.
Otherwise expecting newly formed vW to 92.010



Gold has un-triggered its vM to 1121.2, above 1369.4 nulls,
and will trigger vW to 1708.3






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Sunday, January 13, 2019

Week Ending 1-11-19

Stock indicies are still rallying, but all are about tohit vW target prices that will re-test their necklines for vM's lower.  If stocks start to roll over at these levels instead of consolidate and close above the necklines, we are likely to see much lower.  Several patterns higher, and to new highs are forming though.  


The ES has large patterns formed both ways.  
Currently headed toward vW 2628.75
See if can continue higher and take out vM neckline to 2168.25
Click for Update



The Russell hit vW 1412.5 and continued climbing.
On its way to vW 1462.5, which is right at the neckline for vM 1218.2 



The Nasdaq formed vW to 6745
vM to 5478.5 is still triggered.



Dow headed to vW 24346, which is just below the neckline for 21242



XLF is consolidating just below 24.64
See if is resistance or heads higher towards 26.06



Oil has untriggered vM to 19.91and just below 53.34 target price.  
See if can continue higher to newly formed vW to 63.19



The dollar is just above vM 94.410
See if can bounce from there, 
otherwise expecting recent low around 93.7



Gold has un-triggered its vM to 1121.2, above 1369.4 nulls,
and will trigger vW to 1708.3



Bonds have formed and triggered a vM to 156'05, 
which is right at the gap fill at 156'06



Copper is testing necklines between lower and higher.



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Sunday, January 6, 2019

Week Ending 1-4-19

Stocks and oil have been rallying and have vW's higher that are triggered.  However, there are larger vM's lower that are still triggered.  Watch to see if price can continue above target prices and re-take the necklines(which are just above the target prices).
Note: Nothing much has changed for the Russell, Nasdaq, Dow, the Dollar,gold,and copper on the charts so refer to last weeks blog for those.



The ES has hit vW 2529.75 and continued climbing after consolidating.  
Expecting vW 2628.75 but think it will be a resistance area.
vW 2628.75 is just below the vM neckline to 2273.



XLF has formed and triggered a vW to 26.06



Oil has formed and triggered a vW to 51.84.
It will have to continue above it in order to untrigger vM to 24.39
Click for Update



Bonds have formed a vM to 158'08 after hitting vW 164'05.
If doesn't bounce from there, expecting gap 156'06



Lumber is in between larger time from patterns about 40% in each direction, 
which are inside much larger time fram patterns.
vM to 196.1 is triggered.




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Tuesday, January 1, 2019

End of 2018

Indices bounced, but only after falling well below vM target prices.  I think for long term markets, it would have been better for them to fall further and bounce from the lower vM target prices.  If prices roll over and fall to the lower vM target prices, they will form much larger patterns lower, not shown on the following charts.


The S&P fell well below vM target price of 2489.5, but has currently retaken it. 
Has small vW's to 2529.75 and 2628.75 that are triggered.  Larger time frame vM to 2273 remains triggered unless price climbs above 2660.



The Russel formed small vW to 1412.9
VM to 1218.2 is still triggered.



The Nasdaq formed vW to 6745
vM to 5478.5 is still triggered.
 

The Dow has formed vW to 24346.
vM to 21242 is still triggered.



XLF has hit and trying to bounce from vM 22.65
Small vW to 24.64 is triggered.
vM to 20.28 is still formed.



Oil has formed a bear flag to 24.39 
inside a larger time-frame vM to 19.91



The Dollar has triggered a vM to 94.410
but ultimately looks like it wants higher.



Gold has un-triggered its vM to 1121.2, above 1369.4 nulls,
and will trigger vW to 1708.3



Bonds have continued their rally higher.  
A very likely scenario here is for a pullback to GAP 156'06
before resuming rally towards vW's 164 and 174



Copper is testing necklines between lower and higher.





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Sunday, December 23, 2018

Week ending 12-21-18

Stocks have been getting hammered, falling below shorter term vM target prices.  Expecting lower.  Oil has been getting hammered as well, while bonds have been rallying.  could see some pullback/seesaw action, but I think ultimately the current trends will continue.


The ES hit target price 2489.5 but couldn't bounce from there.
Expecting VM to 2273



The Russel couldn't bounce from 1330.2
Expecting 1218.2



The Nasdaq couldn;t bounce from 6202.75
Expecting 5478.5



The Dow couldn't bounce from 23292.
Expecting 21698



XLF has fallen through vM's to 24.39 and 23.06 
and is sitting just above vM to 22.65.
If doesn't bounce from there, expecting vM 20.28



Oil has formed a bear flag to 24.39 
inside a larger time-frame vM to 19.91



The dollar has triggered a vM to 94.410
but ultimately looks like it wants higher.



From 10/28/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buying opportunity for vW to 1708.3




Bonds have continued their rally higher.  
A very likely scenario here is for a pullback to GAP 156'06
before resuming rally towards vW's 164 and 174
Click for Update












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Sunday, December 9, 2018

Week Ending 12/7/18



Stock indicies have been been seesawing in recent weeks.  The Russell and Nasdaq are performing worse than the Dow and S&P, which is concerning for markets.  Oil needs to bounce or looks like could head much lower.  Bonds have hit an upward target price.  Watch id the pull back or continue the uptrend, which will put pressure on stocks.



 Bulls and Bears continue to battle for vM necklines.
As of the open Sunday night, the bears are winning.
If price can't retake the necklines, expecting 2489.5 and 2273.0



The Russell is back below the necklines for 1330.2 and 1218.2



The Nasdaq is significantly below necklines for 6202.75 and 5478.5



The Dow is similar to the S&P




The XLF has nulled vW to 29.41 and broke well below the neckline for 24.39



Oil needs to bounce from here to avoid triggering a huge vM to under $20



The dollar has a vM to 94.410 formed, 
but ultimately looks like it wants higher.



From 10/28/18
Gold has formed and triggered a vM to 1121.2. 
which is very likely if the Dollar continues to rise.
Needs to hold 1230 area to avoid further selling towards 1121.2,
which will likely be a buying opportunity for vW to 1708.3



Bonds hit price target 155'28.  They could pull back here, 
but ultimately they look like they want the 159 area.











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