5/17/17

The Nasdaq and S&P made new highs yesterday, but today fell sharply, supposedly due to allegations Trump asked Comey to stop investigations into Flynn.  This is likely just noise, and markets may have wanted this sell off anyway.    

Note:  ThinkOrSwim no longer offers free quotes from I.C.E, so those will be left out, or from another program.

The S&P fell heavily after making new highs yesterday.  It has entered the gap created on 4/23 and is sitting right at the half gap.  If doesn't bounce from here today/tomorrow, it will likely fill the gap at 2345.25

I expect the gap will get filled regardless, it just may bounce a bit from halfway first.  Expecting it to bounce from the gap once filled.Needs to hold 2117.75 to avoid nulling vW's higher towards new highs.

The Nasdaq still has a way to go before entering the gap from 4/23

The Dow didn't make new highs yesterday.  Has a vW to new highs of 21640 if can hold above 20311

Oil has been trying to bounce back and has taken back its 10ma and 250ma.  Still just below the 50 and 200ma's.  Needs to get those back.  

Copper has a concerning vM to 2.1828 triggered, which is just below the 8/24/15 crash level.  

Gold is regaining its ma's.

Banks fell over 3%, triggering vM to 21.42

If breaks below 22.89, the vW towards new highs will be nulled.

The IBB is sitting in between its short and long term ma's.  If falls below longer term ma's, will likely see test of 250 area and possibly vM 223.13 target price.

Week ending 4/28

Stock indexes fell the beginning of March and have since consolidated and are now testing their all time highs, or breaking above them.  The Nasdaq and Russel have made new all time highs since March.    The dollar is still near recent lows and sitting on its 200ma.  Oil tested its highs made in the beginning of March, but failed and is currently sitting at its 200 and 250 ma's.  

The S&P gapped up this week and was close to testing all time highs.  It has a  small vM (not triggered) to 2369.75 which is just above the top of the gap at 2365.75.  If it enters the gap it will likely fill it at 2345.25

If it doesn't bounce off the gap fill, expecting a retest of 2320 area and then vM target price at 2309.  Larger vW's to 2419.5 and 2441.75 have been triggered by this weeks gap up.

The Russel broke all time highs made the beginning of March.  vW to 1599 still triggered.  10 and 50 ma's also look constructive.

The Nasdaq also made new all time highs.  It has however hit all inverted head and shoulders, and double bottoms it has formed.  Unless it goes parabolic, it will need to pull back, and or consolidate sideways for a setup higher.

Much longer time frame does have a sort of cup & handle formation towards 8300 

The Dow has so far bounced off vM target price of 20336, which was formed with the new all time highs made the beginning of March.  Expecting new highs and vW target price of 21255.  Also has a double bottom to 21952, which was created during the 2008-2009 crash.

  

The XLF is bouncing between necklines for 21.42 and 25.04, which matches up with the 10 and 50 ma's respectively.

The Dollar is currently testing its 200 ma and sitting just above vM 98.43 and the 250ma.  If doesn't hold that area, expecting 96.962

Oil is sitting at its 200 and 250 ma's, along with a neckline to 35.01

Oil really needs to hold this level to avoid\d further selling towards $35.  Also, any strength in the Dollar will probably not be conducive for oil prices.

Bonds are fighting between 152'15 and 170'04

Gold is still rallying off vM target price of 1129.8

Has formed and triggered vW to 1435.3

vW to 1549.4 will become triggered if price moves much higher.

Copper is trying to bounce back.  vM to 2.446 still triggered though, and if it hits, it will trigger vM to 2.1828 which is below 8/24/15 crash levels.  Needs to break above 2.823, which is a bit over 7% from here.

Week of 3/3

Stock indexes have hit, or are near hitting, inverted head and shoulders target prices for long, intermediate, and shorter term time frames.  Some of them do have large time frame double bottoms working too, however that pattern isn't as reliable as head inverted head and shoulders patterns.  Oil has been bouncing between $51 and $55.

The S&P 500 has hit vW's (inverted head and shoulders) to 2377.75 and went as high as 2401.

S&P 500 Weekly chart shows double bottom toward 2478.75

The Russell has hit vW target of 1404.6

It does have a vW about 13% higher towards 1599, but will need other indexes support getting there. 

The Nasdaq is just under its target price of 5414.25
Has a double bottom to 5501 as well.

The Dow has hit its long term time frame vW to 20296.   Still has a shorter term time frame vW to 21255 working.  It also has a long term double bottom to 21560 to 21952, depending on whether you calculate the target price with the Weekly chart or a daily chart.

The XLF has hit shorter term target prices.  It does have vW patterns higher that formed during the 2008-2009 crash, but they are ugly.

Oil has been bouncing between 55 and 51.  vW's to 59 and 63.20 are triggered.  Has resistance from a gap at 56.5 it needs to get through.  Needs to hold above $51, otherwise will likely see further selling to vM 45.70

$

Gold still rallying off the vM 1129.8 target price.

Bond Futures.

IBB

1/27/17 Trump Innagurated

The stock market closed the first week of the Trump presidency with gains, along with the Dow breaking 20,000 for the first time.  Today, the following Monday stocks got hit but still expecting Dow 20300 and S&P 2370 in the near future.

The S&P has vW's above 2370 that are triggered.

Russell

Nasdaq

Dow

The Dollar looks like it wants to test the 98.5 area.  See if bounces from there.  If holds that area, vW to 106.61 will still be triggered.

Oil has been riding along its 10ma and is just above its 50 ma.  If doesn't hold the 50 ma, it will likely test just below $50, and possibly $45.

Gold has so far bounced off the vM 1129.8 target area.

Bonds trying to bounce, but still has vM to 152'15

Copper vW to 2.7582 still working

XLF still has vW to 24.74 triggered.

IBB

12/11/16 FOMC Announcement

The Fed will likely raise rates this week.  The stock market has continued to make new all time highs following the Trump rally.  Bonds will likely get hit if they raise rates. Stock indexes have been going parabolic, and look like they want higher.  A big pullback wouldn't surprise me, but think will get to 20300 on the Dow and 2370 S&P

/ES has vW's to 2370+ area.  Think will see some exhaustion there.

Dow has vW triggered to 20311

The dollar has formed a vM to 98.057

If hits there, expecting a test of the 200ma.

Oil has triggered a vW to 63.20 which will null vM to 19.41

Expecting resistance around 63.20

XLF has gone parabolic since 11/8 

Expecting Exhaustion at 24.74

IBB has been trading sideways.  Has large patterns both ways.  Needs to hold 240, and preferably the neckline for 398.28

11/14/16 Trump Wins

On 11/8/16 the Dow futures fell over 1000 points as talking heads said the stock market was expecting Clinton to win.  In the early morning of 11/9/16 Trump was announced the winner.  By the market open, the DOW had regained the 1000 points and then some.  On 11\10\16 it made new all time highs.

https://www.tradingview.com/i/vyAZRwij/

The S&P has vW's to 2239.5 and 2372.75 that are triggered.  Recent action has formed vM's below 2000, but a close above 2191.5 will null them.  

The Russel made new all time highs nulling large vM's lower.  vW's to 1404.6 and 1599 and triggered.

The Nasdaq had recently hit a double bottom target price at 4886.5 and made new all time highs before turning over on election night.  vW to 5414.25 is triggered.

The Dow has recently made all time highs.  A few vW's from 19,000 to 20,000 are triggered.

Oil is sitting at its 200ma.  Short term vM's to 41.17 and 34.97 are triggered.  It has vW's to 59.00 and 63.20, but needs to hold 39.19 to avoid nulling them.  Also has a larger time frame vW to 74.21 that is formed.  Still has a larger time frame vM to 19.41 but if vW to 63.20 works out it will be nulled.

The Dollar has hit vW to 99.59

vW to 103.95 is triggered

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Bonds have fallen, hitting vM to 163'17

vM to 152'15 is triggered.  Looks like could easily rip higher towards 175 first though.

Gold has untriggered vW to 1549.5 and triggered vM to 1129.8

Copper launched filling a gap at 2.6455 and close to hitting vW target price at 2.7582

XLF has vW's to 23.45 and 24.74 that are triggered.

IBB has large patterns both directions.  A Trump presidency should be bullish for the sector.