Week ending 8/11/17

Stock indexes fell this week after hitting target prices and making new all time highs consistently the past several weeks.  They have formed and hit short term vM target prices.  If they break the weeks lows, expecting further selling.  See if oil can retake $50.

The S&P reversed after hitting vW to 2478 and making new all time highs.  Has hit a vM at 2434.  See if can bounce from here and form a new bullish pattern.  Otherwise expecting further selling towards 2415-2400.

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Nasdaq also fell after making new all time highs.  vM towards 5703.75 is triggered inside a larger vW to 6076.5 which is also triggered, however price is close to testing its neckline and will be un-triggered if vM to 5703.75 hits.

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The Russell reversed after hitting vW to 1441, forming a small vM to 1351.3

It still has a larger vW to 1597 that is triggered.

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The Dow reversed after making new all time highs and hitting a long term double bottom target price from the '08 crash at 22074.  It has formed and hit a vM 21844, but has yet to bounce.  It has also triggered vM to 21643

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Dow weekly chart

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The XLF hit vW to 25.11 and nulled a short term vM lower.  Has formed a vM to 24.46 that is triggered.

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Oil has been grinding higher.  Needs to retake and hold $50 to avoid further selling towards sub $40.

Above $55 will trigger vW to $73.78

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The IBB still has vW's higher that are triggered.  Has formed and triggered a vM to 294.00

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Week ending 6/30/17

The S&P sold off Thursday nulling a short term vW towards 2470, however it still has longer term time-frame vW's to 2455 and 2478.  It has formed a vM to 2382.75 and needs to hold around the 2413 level to avoid further selling towards it.

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The Nasdaq has triggered a vM to 5315.75 which is about 6% lower.

Needs to make new highs to null.

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The Russell is close to hitting vW target price of 1441.

vW to 1597.2 is triggered

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The Dow hit a vW target price at 21426 and then chopped sideways forming several vM's.  One of them hit last Thursday at 21151 and so far has bounced.  Needs new highs to null them. 

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XLF is trying to reach vW target price at 25.10 which is just below highs needed to null vM to 20.73.

Watch the 25.10 level to see if reverses, or breaks above recent highs at 25.29 to null vM 20.73

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Oil has been making lower lows but now looks like it's trying to bounce back.  Still has vM's to sub-40, which needs above 55.25 to null.  Above 55 will also trigger vW to 73.78

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IBB has been bouncing back after several test of the neckline for vM 56.52

They are not pretty but it has vW's higher, and one that will test its all time highs that is triggered.

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Kroger got slammed on earnings, and slammed again when Amazon announced it was acquiring Whole Foods.  KR fell through vM target prices, a gap, and below the 8/26/15 crash level.  See if it can, and how it reacts to gap fill at 30.28

While I don't think it will happen, it has formed a huge vW to 5.63 and needs a lot of work to null it.

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WBA fell out of its channel and is testing the neckline for 51.78

Needs to hold above 71.50 to avoid nulling vW higher towards 100.97 and triggering vM to 51.78

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AAPL looks toppy here.  Has hit all major long term target prices and forming vM's lower.  Expecting to gap fill 121.30

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There has been a lot of chatter about crypto-currencies lately.  Bitcoin and several others have formed huge bearish vM's.  Bitcoin has a small one to 2194 that will trigger a larger vM to 1085.

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Week Ending 06\09\17

Markets were a bit jittery yesterday during Comey's testimony, but  markets seemed to shrug it off.  However, today after making new all time highs, the markets sold off violently.  Also, the S&P and the Dow hit long term target prices the began forming in 2015.  Futures contract changes to the front month may have also contributed to the sell off.  Contracts did gap last night after the evening re-open. 

The S&P fell after making new all time highs.  It bounced back, regaining about half the move.  If moves lower again and can't hold 2400, expecting 2370, and possibly 2345 area.  Still has patterns higher from here, and if continues the bounce it will form another pattern towards 2470 area.

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The NASDAQ fell the heaviest and had the lightest rebound.  

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The Russell Sold off but regained most closing up .43%

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The Dow sold off after making new highs and hitting a target price of 21245.  So far it is bouncing.  If doesn't hold yesterdays lows, expecting test of 21,000

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XLF has formed a large vM to 20.73 and has been testing its neckline.  Needs to break above 25.30 to null.  It did trigger a vW to 25.10 today.

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Oil has vM's below $40 and are testing the necklines.  Need's to bounce to avoid sub-40.

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Week Ending 5/19/17

Stock indexes have bounced after the S&P and the Dow filled their gaps created on 4/23.  All of them have created gaps above on 5/17 after the Trump allegations, which nothing will come of and look to be getting shrugged off by the markets.  Expecting them to fill the gaps and push above to new highs again.  Oil is back above $50.  Trump is meeting with Saudi Arabia this weekend.  Not sure if anything will come of it but news could make it interesting.

Lots of lines on this one, but all are valid. The S&P filled its gap and has bounce.  See if can break above gap at 2397.5 and continue to new highs.  vW's to 2419.5 and 2441.75 are triggered.  Gap fill will trigger vW to 2465.25 and then will expect vW from 08 crash at 2478.75

The Nasdaq bounced off the area around its last target price of 5566.  Needs to hold above 5534.25, otherwise will likely fill the gap at 5436

The Dow filled its gap on 5/18 and has so far bounced.  Looks like it wants at least 21,255 and if that happens, vW to 21,640 will be triggered.

XLF has bounced from a test of recent lows, and looking to test gap made on the Trump news.  vW to 25.04 is still intact as long as 22.89 holds.

Oil has regained its ma's and closed above $50.  If can continue closing above $50, expecting vW's to $59 and $63.02

If doesn't hold around $44 it could get ugly!  Trump is meeting with Saudi Arabia this weekend.  Any news could make things interesting

Bonds traded slightly up with the stock market bounce, which is unusual.

Gold

The IBB is sitting in between its short and long term ma's.  If falls below longer term ma's, will likely see test of 250 area and possibly vM 223.13 target price.

5/17/17

The Nasdaq and S&P made new highs yesterday, but today fell sharply, supposedly due to allegations Trump asked Comey to stop investigations into Flynn.  This is likely just noise, and markets may have wanted this sell off anyway.    

Note:  ThinkOrSwim no longer offers free quotes from I.C.E, so those will be left out, or from another program.

The S&P fell heavily after making new highs yesterday.  It has entered the gap created on 4/23 and is sitting right at the half gap.  If doesn't bounce from here today/tomorrow, it will likely fill the gap at 2345.25

I expect the gap will get filled regardless, it just may bounce a bit from halfway first.  Expecting it to bounce from the gap once filled.Needs to hold 2117.75 to avoid nulling vW's higher towards new highs.

The Nasdaq still has a way to go before entering the gap from 4/23

The Dow didn't make new highs yesterday.  Has a vW to new highs of 21640 if can hold above 20311

Oil has been trying to bounce back and has taken back its 10ma and 250ma.  Still just below the 50 and 200ma's.  Needs to get those back.  

Copper has a concerning vM to 2.1828 triggered, which is just below the 8/24/15 crash level.  

Gold is regaining its ma's.

Banks fell over 3%, triggering vM to 21.42

If breaks below 22.89, the vW towards new highs will be nulled.

The IBB is sitting in between its short and long term ma's.  If falls below longer term ma's, will likely see test of 250 area and possibly vM 223.13 target price.

Week ending 4/28

Stock indexes fell the beginning of March and have since consolidated and are now testing their all time highs, or breaking above them.  The Nasdaq and Russel have made new all time highs since March.    The dollar is still near recent lows and sitting on its 200ma.  Oil tested its highs made in the beginning of March, but failed and is currently sitting at its 200 and 250 ma's.  

The S&P gapped up this week and was close to testing all time highs.  It has a  small vM (not triggered) to 2369.75 which is just above the top of the gap at 2365.75.  If it enters the gap it will likely fill it at 2345.25

If it doesn't bounce off the gap fill, expecting a retest of 2320 area and then vM target price at 2309.  Larger vW's to 2419.5 and 2441.75 have been triggered by this weeks gap up.

The Russel broke all time highs made the beginning of March.  vW to 1599 still triggered.  10 and 50 ma's also look constructive.

The Nasdaq also made new all time highs.  It has however hit all inverted head and shoulders, and double bottoms it has formed.  Unless it goes parabolic, it will need to pull back, and or consolidate sideways for a setup higher.

Much longer time frame does have a sort of cup & handle formation towards 8300 

The Dow has so far bounced off vM target price of 20336, which was formed with the new all time highs made the beginning of March.  Expecting new highs and vW target price of 21255.  Also has a double bottom to 21952, which was created during the 2008-2009 crash.

  

The XLF is bouncing between necklines for 21.42 and 25.04, which matches up with the 10 and 50 ma's respectively.

The Dollar is currently testing its 200 ma and sitting just above vM 98.43 and the 250ma.  If doesn't hold that area, expecting 96.962

Oil is sitting at its 200 and 250 ma's, along with a neckline to 35.01

Oil really needs to hold this level to avoid\d further selling towards $35.  Also, any strength in the Dollar will probably not be conducive for oil prices.

Bonds are fighting between 152'15 and 170'04

Gold is still rallying off vM target price of 1129.8

Has formed and triggered vW to 1435.3

vW to 1549.4 will become triggered if price moves much higher.

Copper is trying to bounce back.  vM to 2.446 still triggered though, and if it hits, it will trigger vM to 2.1828 which is below 8/24/15 crash levels.  Needs to break above 2.823, which is a bit over 7% from here.