2/26/16

Stock indexes, along with oil closed up for the week.

/ES looks good above 1928.  Has vM to 1931.25 triggered.  If doesn't hold expecting 1908, then possibly sub 1800.  

vW's towards 2000 and above still triggered.

Oil still looks bullish towards $41 as long as can hold its 10ma.  

Russell testing its 50ma

Bonds need to maintain its 10 ma.  Otherwise looks like it will trigger vM to 158'30

Gold looks very similar to bonds

Copper testing neckline for vW to 2.3442

2/24/16

Stock indexes and oil rallied after being down substantially in the a.m., then closing in the green.  

/ES hit vW to 1929.25.  vM1867 triggered, also vM1837.5 formed.  Break above 1943.75 nulls both.

Russell triggering vW's towards 1100

Oil bounced off its 10ma.  Needs to push above its 50ma and 34.82, which will null vM to 24.7 and will trigger vW to 41.08

The Dollar has retaken its 200ma.  Moving average construction looking bullish.  vW to 9.09 triggered.

Bonds

Gold

Copper trying to trigger vW to 2.3442

XLF

IBB

2/22/16

Stock indexes rose, along with bonds, the dollar, oil, and copper.Metals were down about 1.5%, and bonds were down slightly.

/ES has small vM to 1930.5 inside larger vW to 1971 and above.  See if bounces and can regain 50ma.

Russell has vW to 1101.1 triggered.

Nasdaq has vW to 4627.75 triggering.

Dow has vW to 17481 triggered.

Nikkei

The dollar is sitting just above its 200 ma.  The 10ma is below the 200ma.  vM to 93.86 is triggered.

Oil filled yesterdays opening gap and bounced.  Is currently sitting at its 50ma and just below triggering neckline for vW to 41.08
If the dollar falls back below its 200ma, that should be bullish for oil.

Bonds have small vM to 158'3 forming which will be at its 200ma.  vW  to 186'12 will still be triggered.

Gold has vM to 118.7 formed, towards its 50 and 200 ma's.  Currently balancing after a big move up.  Right in between w to 1315 and vM to 1118.7

Copper close to triggering vW to 2.3442

XLF triggering vW to 22.99

IBB trying to bounce.  See if can hold above 10ma.

2/19/16 CASY

Stock indexes are set up to fill new years gap if can hold recent lows.  

/ES has above 10 ma.  vW to 2008.5 triggered.  vW to 2054.5 formed.

Russell

Oil has vW to 41.08 and a W to 42.35
Break above 34.82 nulls vM lower

Hourly chart shows CASY testing its 200 day moving average(white line), 

after a head and shoulders pattern hit its target price of 106.53, and dipped below to 103.99

Has possible double bottom(magenta W shaped lines) forming towards 131.18(new highs) if can hold 103.99(the low of the W) and can break above 118. With macd convergence.

If cant hold 103.99 -103.20 level, expecting head and shoulders target prices of 96.79, and possibly 91.08

FYI:The green line is the 10 day moving average, and the red is the 50 day.

Magenta rectangles are used to show distance to head and shoulders target price.  When price target is hit I change them to yellow and eventually delete them.

The red dashed line(would be green for inverted head and shoulders) is the neckline.  Once it breaks below(or above for inverted h&s) it is considered triggered and has over an 80% chance of hitting its target price.  

These patterns are nulled if price goes above or below the head of the pattern.  In CASY case, it needs new highs.

CASY closer look

2/15/16

Stock indexes and oil rallied on OPEC news after being down heavily on Thursday, and followed through Friday to finish the rough week with a gain.  Gold and Bonds basically had an opposite reaction.

S&P futures rallied off OPEC news on Thursday and rallied through Friday closing the week with a gain.  Price came close to hitting vM(head&shoulders) targets just below 1800 just before the news.  Expecting to rally towards GAP at 1930.5, and W(double bottom) to 1933.5

/ES Long Term still has big patterns to the downside that are triggered.

Russell looks similar to /ES.  W to 1133.5 formed.  Currently trying to retake its 10ma.

Nasdaq similar as well.

The Dow's chart still continues to hold up the best.  vW's haven't been nulled to 16849, 17083, and 17481.

The Nikkei made new lows in the overnight session, but bounced back by end of day.

Oil was down almost 5% on Thursday before OPEC news and closed flat for thge day, followed by a 10% rally on Friday.   As of 2/15 2315 it is up 5% back above $30.

XLF has hit vM to 19.64

2/10/16

Stock indexes started the week with heavy losses, and are sitting just above those lows.  Yellen spoke today and are back near Mondays lows.  Oil made new long term lows today, along with the dollar breaking below short term lows.  Bonds have continued shooting up, and gold is attempting to break out of a double bottom towards $1315, although on low volume.  

/ES hit vM at 1838.  vM to 1799.25 is triggered and vM to 1795.75 has formed.  Break below 1804.25 nulls current vW's higher.  Has a vW to 1932 if can hold above 1820, otherwise expecting 1795.75

Long term needs to hold this 1800 level.

/TF nulled higher vW's, and on Wed made new lows after hours.

Nasdaq fell hitting vM target price at 3916, however in doing so it has triggered vM to 3367.25, about 17% lower.

Dow bulls need it to hold 15729, and if that fails, 15285 to avoid triggering vM to 13402.

Nikkei

The Dollar has fallen below all ma's

Bonds have been parabolic.  

Gold trying to break out of double bottom towards 1315.

Copper has vW to 2.3442 if can hold 1.9355

Oil hit vM to 27.21 and has continued below making new lows.   vM to 24.7 is triggered.

XLF

IBB below all ma's with 223.13 on the radar,